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I am currently working on my thesis in behavioral finance. My topic is about short term stock returns after the elections. One paper ("Sport Sentiments and Stock Returns") proves that the losing country in a sports game exhibits much lower short term stock returns because of the sport event's impact on the mood of individuals. I would like to make a similar argument about the elections in two party systems where close to half the voters will feel like they have lost the elections. My hypothesis is that this could lead to a downbeat mood for everyone who 'lost' the election and consequently lead to lower short term returns. My question now is if anyone knows about a study which has investigated if the outcomes of an election influence the mood of individuals?

TL/DR:

Does anyone know papers investigating the impact of election outcomes on individual's mood?

Thanks for your help in advance!

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  • $\begingroup$ "One paper proves that the losing country in a sports game exhibits much lower short term stock returns" I would be interested in reading this paper, could you please link to it or give its title? $\endgroup$ – Giskard May 28 '16 at 21:43
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I can only provide an australian perspective, but we have a variety of consumer confidence sources tracking weekly results. Somewhere in

Here is one analysing elections. It shows a very sharp drop in the lead up but it is short lived. There is evidence that this impacts the stock market.

Shane Oliver wrote about the 2013 australian election, the 2016 Australian election and the Italian election. The most interesting is probably the one published around the 2013 Australian election as it looks at the impact on stock markets. Those sources should be a good starting point. There's a good amount of research going around. The basic gist is that mood is impacted for sure but how important this mood swing is is unclear.

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