It is a common conception these days that exposure to international trade and its adverse effects is a major factor in the rise of protectionist parties or candidates in the most advanced economies (Brexit, D.Trump, Front National, ...). The underlying assumption is probably that workers who have lost their job (or fear losing it) due to international competition are more likely to endorse a candidate with a protectionist agenda.

I would like to know if there has been any attempt at identifying the causal effect of exposure to globalization on voting. If someone knows an article whose authors have found some exogenous variation in the data to address this question I would be very interested. Thank you.

  • $\begingroup$ Is protectionism really what you are looking for? It is worth noting that the Brexit campaign claimed that while the UK will leave the common labor market it will remain part of the common market for goods. $\endgroup$ – Giskard Sep 18 '16 at 20:46
  • $\begingroup$ @denesp do you have a more precise expression ? To me the common point of these movements is that their agenda insists on "protecting" their national industries from international competition. $\endgroup$ – Oliv Sep 19 '16 at 7:43
  • $\begingroup$ This is just my personal opinion, but I would say the Brexit movement was more about national sovereignty and xenophobia than protectionism. The UK benefits immensely from the common market via the London financial hub so mutual protectionism would be unwelcome. I do not know about the protectionist policies of FN, but they also definitely talk a lot about national sovereignty and xenophobia. I need not elaborate on Trump. So perhaps your question might fit Politics better. Does free trade beget xenophobia? (Or are xenophobia and protectionism linked.) $\endgroup$ – Giskard Sep 19 '16 at 9:07

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