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Preamble:

Today the rate of EUR is 82.09 in BDT ( Bangladeshi Currency) and two hours later it's 82.50 ( I hope, it's increasing). But why does this fluctuation just keeps happening? Looks like the rate changes every seconds..

Question:

  1. What's the equation to calcualte currency fluctuation?
  2. How can someone forecast the fluctuation and direction of fluctuation (upward or downward)

Please consider to have mercy before you lash me out for asking silly qoestion. I'm a newbie :)

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  • $\begingroup$ 1. What do you mean by this? 2. If anyone could do that with 100% certainty they would be a trillionares. $\endgroup$ – Giskard Dec 30 '16 at 10:27
  • $\begingroup$ What percentage of certainty is acheiveable then? And leaving that too you could answer the first one too if you please :) $\endgroup$ – edam Dec 30 '16 at 11:24
  • $\begingroup$ @denesp I meant how 1 EUR = xyz = 82.50 BDT ? What are the XYZ variables in the equation? $\endgroup$ – edam Dec 30 '16 at 13:08
  • $\begingroup$ The nominal exchange rate, which is what you see, fluctuates around the real exchange rate, which is driven by differences in the prices of goods across borders. $\endgroup$ – Hessian Dec 30 '16 at 15:09

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