From Prof. Stiglitz' Vanity Fair article:
How, one might ask, is this possible, given Trump’s rhetoric, his determination to move against China with a 45 percent tariff? There’s a global macroeconomic variable that Trump left out of his calculus, and that’s America’s exchange rate—not just with China, but with the entire world. If America’s exchange rate increases, our exports become more expensive, and imports become cheaper.
He doesn't explicitly say that tariffs tend to increase a country's exchange rate. He leaves it as a standalone conditional. If it's simply a conditional, he could mean that there's a nonzero chance that the Dollar's value will increase independently. However, I felt like maybe he infers some causality.
I feel like a tariff would change the trade balance such that the US will import less, while exports are fixed.
Do import tariffs tend to increase a country's exchange rate? If so, why?