Scoring rules arose in the field of meteorology, with the seminal paper published in 1950, but I can't find any references to their using in economics or finance until Hanson published in 2002. Half a century is a long time, so it seems unlikely that Hanson was the first to use scoring rules.

Is the problem just with my Google-fu or was Hanson actually the first? I'm betting on the former.

  • 3
    $\begingroup$ Please define and describe "scoring rules" and "LMSR", and their application to Economics, for the benefit of all users. Literature references would also help. Thank you. $\endgroup$ – Alecos Papadopoulos Nov 20 '14 at 14:22
  • $\begingroup$ What are "scoring rules?" What are they meant to score? $\endgroup$ – Tom Au Nov 20 '14 at 15:06
  • $\begingroup$ Don't have time now, but I will tonight. thanks for the feedback. $\endgroup$ – JenSCDC Nov 20 '14 at 15:06
  • $\begingroup$ Tom, for now, all I have time for is to give you the link to Wikidedia: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_rule $\endgroup$ – JenSCDC Nov 20 '14 at 15:08

Hanson wasn't the first one.

"Scoring rules and the evaluation of probability assessors" by Winkler was published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association in 1969 wasn't published in an economics journal but already mentioned economic applications.

Other examples (probably also not the first publications in economics journals, but still earlier than Hanson) are:

Selten (1991), "Properties of a Measure of Predictive Success?" in Mathematical Social Sciences.

Selten (1998), "Axiomatic characterization of the quadratic scoring rule" in Experimental Economics.


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