I can't add a comment as I don't have enough rep, so this is my reply to @LetTheWritersWrite.
First off, as for a recession: It is believed by many economists that we are beginning a recession right now. We're beyond the 80 month average in expansion periods, we had the first monthly decline in core inflation in 7 years, retail sales #'s have been much lower than expected, average annual growth is being exceeded substantially by debt, 10 year treasury note just broke below 2.2 today, student loan debt along with delinquent payments are rising, housing prices are soaring, and the factors continue to pile on.
The last recession hit Texas very lightly, which should make individuals even more frightened at the hit that may come now that Texas is accelerating at the rate of all other 2008-era boomers. Then there are the Texas specifics: cost of living in North Texas is rising substantially, wages are not growing, Texas now has the 26th lowest unemployment rate (was once 1st), ranks 10th in job growth, North Texas rents are exceeding the national average, and the monthly cost (including property tax) of a home is now far exceeding the national average.
Secondly: Appraisals are already matching the new home values. Those who bought in 2016 are finally feeling some of the pressure of the new valuations. This has led to your next point - many individuals are selling as they were priced out of their home once the new appraisal rate set in. While some are selling just for profit, I know of many more who simply can't afford the payments at the new tax values, and they're having to walk away/rent/downgrade their home.
You have been paying attention where very few have, and that's very important : price drops. It began last year; luxury homes (750k-1m) were seeing price drops of $100-200k. This is always the first sign of a reversal/trouble in the market. Next, DFW saw a drastic slow down in the 500k-750k range, paired with significant price drops. Many 4k-5k square foot homes have sold for under 400k in the past year. Now, we are seeing those in the 300-500k with more price drops. Some dropping as much as 20k per week. This is how every reversal works, it trickles down. As luxury homes fall, it will force lower-priced homes to fall eventually, as different tiered homes can't be in the same price bracket. I have also seen several investors losing money on attempts to 'flip.' Despite the talk, now is the absolute worst time for any investor to buy in Dallas. Even foreclosed properties are selling at market value; I watched a few auctions even go above. After sitting on the market 2 months, they are now attempting to simply break even on the property. I don't know if you have access to the MLS, but I ran a search that may help your research. I took at random 25 properties, between 2,000-2,500 square feet. (I feel this is a healthy sample of the main portion of the used home market.) Of the 25 most recent listings (all within 1 week old) 5 have had price drops already and 5 had contracts fall through (one has now fallen through 4 times. Likely too large of a difference between the appraisal and asking price.) So, in other words, 40% of these listings have shown significant signs of market weakness. That is significant and not common in a healthy market.
For now, the 'rush' mentality and 'better buy now' is the only thing keeping the market where it resides. If individuals simply held off a month on average, placing offers lower than the asking prices, you would likely see a 10-15% drop in all prices. I personally agree with the Fitch report, DFW is approximately 14% overvalued right now. So, if you purchase currently, be prepared to lose your entire down payment/all equity you hold for a few years.