Like what percentage of financial/economical forecast fail? Or how often do politicians create bad policies based on wrong forecasts?

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    $\begingroup$ Consider adding a bit more detail. For example, by forecast failure do you mean those that miss the mark by 10%, 5%, etc. Also, I assume that you mean to ask, "how often do politicians create bad policies based on forecasts that turn out to be wrong?" Both instances happen. Well-meaning politicians use forecast data to inform policy and after the policy has been implemented, the forecast turns out to inaccurate. Politicians have also been known to use bad data from the start for no other reason that it supports their position. Data that doesn't reflect reality isn't really useful. $\endgroup$
    – c4sadler
    May 10, 2017 at 17:20
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    $\begingroup$ Central banks have published research comparing their forecasts versus market forecasters. Whether or not policy is "bad" is going to be an open question. Such research I have seen is country-specific, and only for recent decades. $\endgroup$ May 10, 2017 at 20:47
  • $\begingroup$ There is lies, more lies, and statistics. Serious investors and intellectuals only view statistics as a reference tool. Becuase short term statistic of "success story" may later show unsustainable due to the weakness in the institutional body. Even "accurate" forecast across 5 years means nothing, unless the tide recess, nobody knows you are swimming naked. $\endgroup$
    – mootmoot
    Jul 31, 2017 at 8:04

1 Answer 1


Like what percentage of financial/economical forecast fail?

Well it depends on what you call a forecast.

Considering that there is a large uncountable number of people who are called (or call themselves) financial,economic and policy analysts all over the world who together make what one would think millions of forecasts made everyday, there is probably a number which fail and a number which succeed.

So where are the numbers on it?

I would suspect no general statistic exists because its measurement does not have a practical use from a policy perspective. I say this in the sense, that it is a concern exclusively of private businesses and companies to care how well their forecasts work. providing statistics on their forecasting success would be exclusively for marketing purposes.

Or how often do politicians create bad policies based on wrong forecasts?

This part of the question I recommend for Politics SE as it is more political than economic.

Hope this helps


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