Following on a prior question Objective evidence of USA economic "boom", I took a look at the GDP forecasts for 2018 Q2 provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and NY. As of May 9 the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a 4.0 annual rate for Q2. In contrast the NY Fed is forecasting (as of May 11) a 2.97 Q2 rate. Atlanta here and New York here
(Presumably both banks have the same input data available)
Unless I am misreading this graph, the NY Fed (on Dec 29 2017) was anticipating a 3.87% real growth GDP. A month later the actual rate was announced as 2.53% and three months later (Mar 29th) revised to 2.89% - both actuals substantially removed from the predicted 3.87.
Again, I may be misinterpreting, (if so I'd hope that a respondent can correct me) but based on limited information is would seem that the NY Fed Reserve forecasts are inaccurate.
Any information that respondents might be able to provide to judge the Atlanta Fed accuracy would be appreciated.
UPDATE to this question to this question: Quoted from Atlanta Fed Macroblog May 22 2017
Indeed, current quarter GDP forecasting models maintained by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, St. Louis, and Atlanta have been pointing toward stronger second quarter growth (2.3 percent, 2.6 percent and 4.1 percent, as reported on their respective websites on May 19, 2017).
Assuming that the three Federal Reserve banks all have the same current economic data available, how does someone explain the substantial differences between these forecasts.
But I want to maintain focus on this one question: From a historical perspective, how well have these Federal Reserve forecasts predicted the official (BEA determined) GDPs for previous quarters?