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I am expecting a decline in trade between the US and its key trading partners (China, Europe, Canada, Mexico).

Is there any mechanism / force that prevents US trading partners from cooperating amongst themselves to ramp-up trade amongst themselves to compensate for not trading with the US? Does the US offer goods, which have no substitute?

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No, there is no mechanism or force that prevents the USA's (current/former) trading partners from cooperating amongst themselves to ramp-up trade amongst themselves to compensate for reduced trading with the USA.

And the USA offers very few goods or services that couldn't be substituted with goods or services from elsewhere: but note that supply chains don't grow overnight - it takes time and investment to expand supply chains outside the USA.

And as Adam Bailey notes in the comments, countries generally tend to trade more with those closest to them. To replace that trade, with trade with more distant countries, means higher transport costs, longer transport times, and possibly larger cultural and/or linguistic differences to overcome.

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  • $\begingroup$ +1 I would just add that, for Canada and Mexico, transport costs could limit their scope for finding new, more distant, trading partners for low value and/or perishable goods, eg tomatoes. $\endgroup$
    – Adam Bailey
    Jul 25, 2018 at 10:55

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