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In a 2017 Wall Street Journal op-ed, President of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, wrote:

The odds of a bailout in the next century are still nearly 70%.

I found it surprising that anyone could possibly have computed the odds of this event. Where did Kashkari get this figure from?

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  • $\begingroup$ Everybody will eventually dies. $\endgroup$ – mootmoot Mar 5 '19 at 9:38
  • $\begingroup$ A bailout of what exactly? This should be specified in the question. It shouldn't be necessary to go to the linked article to find out. And even in the article, it isn't entirely clear whether it means a bailout of at least one US bank, or of several US banks. $\endgroup$ – Adam Bailey Mar 5 '19 at 10:42

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