I am seeking help with identification strategy for figuring out causal direction in the following context:
There is a company where project managers (PM) rotate every 3-7 years across the country/globe. Naturally some PMs leave the company. I would like to measure the impact of PM rotation/turnover on project quality (as measured by time taken for completion ).
EDIT: I expect the PM rotation to be most likely independent of Project Quality. PM's must rotate between 3 to 7 years, with 7 being a hard limit with rare exceptions. PM's decisions are more likely to be driven by quality of life in a region, schooling, their own career aspirations, the type of opportunities that have opened up within or outside the organization. They cannot be fired (Govt) and don't get too much extra credit for a successful completion of a project and they don't get much flack if things are slow (unless it is a spectacular failure). Sometimes PMs move to a new region which is close to the old region so they are still able to hold on to their portfolio.
I would like help with identification strategy to distinguish between or tease out the separate impacts of the following scenarios:
Scenario 1: PM is rotated/changed --> Project quality suffers --> Project takes longer to complete.
Scenario 2: Project quality is good --> Project completes quickly --> PM didn't have the opportunity/time to leave
Scenario 3: Project quality is bad --> project takes forever --> PM rotates/leaves company due to natural career progression/rotation policy
I've spend the last many hours googling literature studying the impact of project manager turnover on project quality but I haven't been able to find any good design. Would be grateful for any suggestions for identification.