(i) I don't understand point 1 beneath. Why does the Federal Reserve's buying assets lower risk premiums?
(ii) I don't understand point 3 beneath. Why does lower stock rate of returns increase stock prices? Won't lower stock rate of returns lower stock demand? Won't some investors buy something else other than stocks?
Why the stock market is going up... and it's not because the Coronavirus is going away : investing
I think I know why the stock market is up... and it's not because the Coronavirus is going away.
It requires some macroeconomic and finance knowledge, but maybe, just maybe:
- Fed actions (buying assets) are lowering risk premiums
- Fed actions (lowering rates) are lowering asset yields overall
- Both of these actions lower stock yields, which increases stock prices
- Lower stock yields = longer duration for stocks (dividend discount model)
- Longer duration + lower stock yields = less overall sensitivity to the lower expected earnings for next 12-24 months due to Coronavirus
- Plus... a maybe.... maybe long-term inflation expectations due to printing money = higher earnings (in pure dollar terms) for cash flows 5-30 years from now
Run those things through a discounted cash-flow model, and you get higher stock prices. Near-term earnings become less important to the overall picture.