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Oil prices have a significant impact on the world economy, positive for exporters and negative for importers to oversimplify a bit. They are also known to be highly volatile, and depend on hard to predict parameters, such as the changing policy of the OPEC which resembles a cartel.
Most international organizations (European Commission and IMF for instance), seems to use future prices.
Do you have any studies mentionning or better menchmarking oil prices forecast methods ?
There is a lot of literature on this question.
This review looks like a good place to start although it is from 2013. It looks at a wide range of both qualitative and quantitative approaches.
Among them, the most frequently used technique is the time series econometrics in order to forecast the volatility of oil prices, the second frequently used is the financial method, the third frequently used methods are based on structural models and non standard computational models, and the least used technique is the qualitative knowledge based method
