Is the U.S. Dollar About to Crash? – Pairagraph

The way I see currencies is that they are a relative pair trade. Against gold, with its stability characteristics, I don't like the US dollar. But despite all the warts, pimples, and scars on the greenback, I think most other countries have far deeper problems.

I'm not Rosenberg, but he appears upright.

From 2002 to 2009, he was Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch in New York, during which he was consistently ranked in the Institutional Investor All-Star analyst rankings. Prior thereto, he was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada, based out of Toronto, where he and his team placed first in the Brendan Woods survey of Canadian economists for ten years in a row. 

Mr. Rosenberg received both a Bachelor of Arts and Masters of Arts degree in Economics from the University of Toronto.

  • $\begingroup$ I think the quoted paragraph is trying to say that currencies only have value relative to other currencies, so it makes no difference whether the USD is really really good compared to everything else being average, or whether it's the best of a bad lot - you'll be equally likely to trade it either way. $\endgroup$
    – user253751
    Jul 27 '20 at 19:26

It means you can make money trading a pair of currencies if both lose value compared to a standard. Likewise you can make money trading a pair of currencies when both increase in value compared to a standard. You mostly care about the change of a currency's value relative to another.

If you think USD will decrease in value 10% versus gold and you think EUR will decrease 15% versus gold, you sell EUR to buy USD and wait to see if you were right. You don't have to compare currencies to gold. There are other standards for what a currency is worth. It doesn't matter what the standard is because your profit depends upon the value of a currency compared to another.


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