I've been looking around for some per-country estimation of the expected GDP drop due to the COVID pandemic.

I've found this answer in this site but it only mentions a few countries. I understand not all countries will have such an estimation, but maybe for the G20 or similar groups?


There are some cross-country studies but not that many of them yet. For example, Maliszewska, M., Mattoo, A., & Van Der Mensbrugghe, D. (2020) from world bank provide some cross-country estimates of the cumulative effect of covid-19 for various countries and regions across the world. Their estimated cumulative effect of covid on GDP (measured as deviation from their benchmark) is shown below.

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However, I would advise to take these results with a pinch of salt. These are preliminary estimates that were published in April and better ones will be fore sure forthcoming in near future.

  • $\begingroup$ Thank you very much! What does the "amplified" colum mean? $\endgroup$
    – Gabriel
    Aug 9 '20 at 16:46
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ @Gabriel those are different scenarios of how bad the pandemic will be - amplified is a scenario under which pandemic will be worse than in the “standard” pandemic scenario in first column. Authors also explain in greater detail how the scenarios differ in the paper itself $\endgroup$
    – 1muflon1
    Aug 9 '20 at 16:48

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