-1
$\begingroup$

I recently read an article about China's economic progress: Chinese economy to overtake US 'by 2028' due to Covid

Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?

And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?

Will China take over US economy?

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ The article you read gives several reasons for what might happen, and the researchers in it have utilized a model to prove it. Unfortunately, every model is an approximation, no matter how good or bad at that, so no one can give a definitive answer of what's going to happen. The authorities on the matter - the ones you should consult with, are not here, in Econ SE, but in the sources that the article claims. $\endgroup$ Oct 19, 2021 at 15:30

1 Answer 1

1
$\begingroup$

Can models and simulations based on economic data predict when China's economy will overtake that of the United States?

Trivially yes, the source you cite shows a model with one such prediction.

And what effect did the outbreak of coronavirus have on the predicted outcome?

China was growing faster than US before Covid pandemic, those CEBR estimates show it will be growing faster than US despite the pandemic. So other than shifting the date at which China’s GDP catches up with US (due to change in growth rates) not much.

Will China take over US economy?

As long as growth rate of Chinese economy will continue to be larger than growth rate of US economy yes - if one economy grows faster than the other it’s mathematically inevitable. If the situation would change then no. These are forecasts not divinations. There is no guarantee China economy will continue to grow in the future.

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ The United States is probably implementing its plans to prevent it. $\endgroup$ Oct 19, 2021 at 17:56

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.