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In the case of Japan, one of the more prominent examples of an aging society, loan growth has slowed at what appears to be a consistent rate with its declining workforce.

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However the US appears to be a fairly robust counter-example with baby-boomers weighing on labor force size and yet loan growth seems to be resisting a longer-term downtrend. See:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTCI

Part of my aim is to map out where current views reside with aging demographics in loan growth. What theories are relevant and to what degree we have in terms of consensus (universal versus different camps).

On the one hand, aggregate demand falls as the population thins out, thus reducing demand for credit. However, the supply of credit, seems to follow a different trajectory in that the capital that was created over the lifespan of those recently deceased should still be in the economy.

Question

Is there a universal, measurable link between aging demographics and credit growth? If not, what should be added to the conversation (assuming its not just happenstance idiosyncrasies unique to each country)?

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  • $\begingroup$ Perhaps the increase in the amount of money that the next generation is forced to borrow. Also, is the US really aging? $\endgroup$
    – user253751
    Oct 28 at 10:26

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