0
$\begingroup$

For example, see the below graph from https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-vs-gold/ BTC per ounce of gold

It seems that intention is to isolate the effect of US dollar when assessing bitcoin's value, e.g. BTC quoted in US dollars mean it will inevitably be subject to the US dollar fluctuations and demand, as opposed to only its demand.

But does this metric achieve this? If not, how can it be interpreted?

$\endgroup$
4
  • $\begingroup$ Either you or I misread this. I think it simply shows how much more bitcoin is increasingly worth compared to Gold. All it shows is how many bitcoins (fractions of) you need per oz (both are in USD). Kind of like a commercial. $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    Jan 12 at 22:32
  • $\begingroup$ @AKdemy, so is it just the ratio of BTC in USD to Gold Oz Quoted in USD? Is the implication that this ratio tells us nothing about bitcoin's purchasing power ? $\endgroup$ Jan 12 at 22:35
  • $\begingroup$ If you believe gold is a store of value than this tells you a lot about BTC purchasing power. My personal belief is that gold is a very good store of value and bitcoin is a risk asset that will go down to 0 in the near future (specifically with inflation - when people see it doesn't "store" anything). $\endgroup$ Jan 13 at 10:37
  • 2
    $\begingroup$ @ReutSharabani "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." $\endgroup$
    – Giskard
    Jan 14 at 8:44

2 Answers 2

4
$\begingroup$

It's BTC per Oz gold which shows how many btc you need to pay for 1oz. To compute this, you need to know the price (and both are quoted in USD). It still tells you a lot about the purchasing power. A lot less compared to the USD price though, because I doubt many people use Oz of gold as their unit of account.

However, everyone kind of knows gold is worth a lot. Going from having to spend 1 million BTC to only a fraction of one BTC means it must be gaining a lot more than gold. It's like many charts some rather useless ratio (happy to see other opinions).

$\endgroup$
1
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Thanks. So is it fair to say that "BTC per Oz gold" as an indicator removes the influence of the value of the USD when valuing bitcoin? $\endgroup$ Jan 14 at 5:37
3
$\begingroup$

I am not sure what the chart intends to show. In any case, the series in question is how many BTC you need to pay for one ounce of gold. The scale is logarithmic by the way.

If you overlay the inverse dollar price, you will see that the movement is largely identical to the BTC-Oz chart. Gold price changes are miniscule compared to BTC, so almost all variation is due to BTCUSD price fluctuations.

I only used FRED where BTC is only available from end of 2014 and the IBA Gold Fixing Price 3:00 P.M London.

Therefore, I zoomed into the chart in woobull. enter image description here

replicated it - and added the inverse BTC price. enter image description here I hope this helps to answer how much it "removes the value of USD".

In my humble opinion, it is a rather meaningless chart.

Edit
The line showing how many bitcoins you need for one oz of gold is very similar in shape to the inverse BTCUSD price (USDBTC). The reason is that gold had a range (max value - low value) of USD 953.2 in the observation period, whereas BTC's range was USD 64561.23. This means that essentially all the variation you see in that chart comes from the BTCUSD price.

This is also the reason the author used the logarithmic scale. I post the original scale below. Even though I lack the time where bitcoin was worth close to nothing, you still see that it looks as if the price of bitcoin relative to gold hardly moves in the end. This is due to the lower bound of 0, and any further increase in BTCUSD price is simply getting you a bit closer to 0. If it is 0.02 or 0.04 will be invisible to the human eye in that case, although it is a massive change in the value of BTC.

enter image description here

In terms of standard deviations, BTCUSD had a STDV of 15974.84. That of gold was 256.07.

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Interesting and thank you for the follow up. I guess I am confused over how plotting the the inverse dollar price of BTCUSD leads to the following conclusion: "Gold price changes are miniscule compared to BTC, so almost all variation is due to BTCUSD price fluctuations." $\endgroup$ Jan 17 at 20:22

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.