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One sometimes hears that flying is much safer than driving a car, the death/mileage ratio being much lower. This is very plausible, especially in developed countries, and the safety gap widened as time went on and air travel became safer.

However, while most people think they are above average drivers, it is plausible that the risk is not the same for everyone. I am looking for scholarly articles where they build a model for the death/mileage ratio (or a similar indicator) of car travel and account for factors like

  1. age of driver/driving experience of the driver
  2. whether the driver was under the influence at the time of the accident
  3. whether the accident was at night
  4. age/quality of the car.

I would also include something like country the accident took place in, but I am guessing any such study is likely to be national, not global in scope.

Essentially I would like to know how much at risk a "cautious" driver is, what factors increase risk and by how much.

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    $\begingroup$ Interesting question, but how is it on-topic for Economics SE? Appears more suitable for Travel SE. $\endgroup$ Mar 3, 2022 at 12:12
  • $\begingroup$ @AdamBailey Regressions models? On Travel? $\endgroup$
    – Giskard
    Mar 3, 2022 at 12:26
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    $\begingroup$ Why would death per mileage ratio be a good measure of comparing safety? Surely a better measure would be, for example, for one particular person in one particular year, the "probability of death caused from flying " vs "probability of death caused from driving." I don't think mileage should be the independent variable either - time spent doing those things is what matters. It doesn't matter how fast the plane is going... $\endgroup$ Mar 5, 2022 at 13:03
  • $\begingroup$ @AdamRubinson The mileage ratio makes sense if you want to assess the risk of going from city A to city B by plane vs. the risk of making the same trip by car. $\endgroup$
    – Giskard
    Mar 5, 2022 at 13:26
  • $\begingroup$ @AdamRubinson >> a better measure would be, for example, for one particular person in one particular year, the "probability of death caused from flying " vs "probability of death caused from driving." << This does not deal with the composition effect. In cities, more than 50% of pedestrians who are hit by cars are hit on the crosswalk. This is not because the crosswalk is riskier than crossing at a random point, it is because the vast majority of urban pedestrians are on a crosswalk when they are crossing the road. $\endgroup$
    – Giskard
    Mar 5, 2022 at 13:29

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