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Things like "banning Russia from SWIFT" sound devastating, but then we find out that actually it is a ban on some (not all) Russian banks. So, do the sanctions imposed by the West and the pro-western countries actually hurt Russian economy, or do the Russians find the ways to make them painless?

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Some sanctions can be evaded and some others are just political symbolism but overall the sanctions do hurt Russian economy.

In January 2022 Russian economy grew at about 6% (see Statista). After the war and sanctions the The Institute of International Finance predicts a 15% contraction for Russia (as Reported by Reuters).

This effectively reverses 15 years of Russian economic growth, meaning that in one year Russia in economic terms will get back to 2006 (see picture below). That’s quite a lot, it’s worse than the economic impact of recent pandemic on some countries. This is based partially on forecasts which are not 100% accurate but I reckon that even in best case scenario Russia will experience at least 8-10% contraction. However, in worst case it could contract even by 20% perhaps even more.

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