-1
$\begingroup$

Ray dalio in this video "how the economic machine works" shows the debt peaking at 400% https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0 When I look at a different source, I don't see anything at 300% in 2008. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S

What's going on?

$\endgroup$
2
  • $\begingroup$ youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0?t=998 states total US debt which includes NonFinancial Business, Federal Government, State and Local Government, Households & Nonprofit Organizations and Financial Business (not just Federal debt). $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    May 7 at 22:09
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Dalio uses the following Sources: Global Financial Data & BW Estimates. see for example here chart2 on P.11of his economic principles series. specifically Debt Cycles: Leveragings & Deleveragings $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    May 8 at 0:16

1 Answer 1

0
$\begingroup$

What was Debt Burden in 2008?

If by 'debt burden' you mean total US public debt, then according to the CEIC somewhere around 750% of US GDP.

When I look at a different source, I don't see anything at 300% in 2008. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S What's going on?

Fred data you cite use total federal government debt (see the notes). That is not equal to total government debt. Total government debt would include debt of all other government organizations at any level not just federal debt.

However, according to the published numbers I found Dalio was still incorrect. Data provided by CEIC show that the total US government debt was somewhere in ballpark of 750% of GDP (see the graph below).

The YouTube video does not have references to the data used. It is possible that Dalio used different definition of total US government debt than CEIC. Perhaps he only took into consideration US Federal and State governments, I do not see it anywhere explained in the video. Alternatively, the data could have been revised since (the video is from 2013, data do sometimes get revised after publication). Unless Dalio somewhere provides more details we can only conjecture why the number is different from the one provided by CEIC.

enter image description here

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.