How would an economist go about predicting the impact of a potential war on a certain country's economy?
Say we are interested in assessing the impact of a possible war over Taiwan on the GDP of Vietnam (one of its major trading partners). As trade is one of the channels through which the effects of the war could be transmitted to Vietnam, one approach that I can think of would be to determine the causal effect of trade between Vietnam and Taiwan on Vietnam's GDP over the last few years using a fixed effects model.
Thereafter, one could make a qualitative assessment of the decline in trade that would result from the potential war (say a 60% decline in trade) and combine that with the results from the model to make a prediction on the actual impact of Vietnam's GDP.
Obviously this is not a very holistic approach as it considers only one transmission mechanism for the effects of war. I'm wondering if anyone has better ideas on how such predictive modelling could be done and if there is any existing literature out there that could provide more insights.