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I have some money in Euros but living in USA. Today they are going to decide if the Greece will stay in Euro-zone.

I was wondering what will happen to Euro if Greece leave the EU. Or what is expected to happen?

I'm planning to exchange the Euros in August. Is it a good idea or should I do it right now or just keep the Euros?

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  • $\begingroup$ If you know, you can use the knowledge to get rich quick... my prediction is that tonight there will be a temporary emergency solution and Greece will be given 3 months to propose reforms that their creditors believe in. Et cetera. $\endgroup$ – gerrit Jun 22 '15 at 14:00
  • $\begingroup$ I am voting to close, and flag to migrate to personal finance. Although underlying the question is the Economics theory of monetary unions and exchange rates, the OP focus is on his own assets. $\endgroup$ – Alecos Papadopoulos Jun 22 '15 at 14:13
  • $\begingroup$ @AlecosPapadopoulos, I just got the question closed at the personal finance and advised to ask at economics forum. $\endgroup$ – Grasper Jun 22 '15 at 14:17
  • $\begingroup$ @gerrit, generally if Greece leave EU, it should just help Euro, right? $\endgroup$ – Grasper Jun 22 '15 at 14:18
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    $\begingroup$ @Grasper I understand. This is one of those questions that are really in limbo: the situation has no real precedents, so the "personal finance" guys have no base to offer an answer, while the "economics" guys would need to write a book about it, and in any case it would not focus on what really interests you. $\endgroup$ – Alecos Papadopoulos Jun 22 '15 at 14:27
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I guess it is possible to say something about expectations based on the exchange rate:

http://freecurrencyrates.com/en/exchange-rate-history/EUR-USD/2015/eucb

The euro is strengthening relative to the dollar since April. So I believe that either they think Greece will not leave the eurozone or that it will not have significant consequences. Either way, it seems that the USD/EUR exchange rate is not expected to fall. Of course surprising things do happen.

This answer cannot extend to your personal finance problem, I do not know any of the details. (Even if I did, you are probably as wise as I am.)

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  • $\begingroup$ I thought it was strengthening because it always does in the summer. Due the people investing more in tourism. Good for Greece. $\endgroup$ – Grasper Jun 22 '15 at 16:52
  • $\begingroup$ @Grasper exchange rates usually change if there is new information. While you are totally correct that during the summer tourism yields large revenues for the Greek government, I don't think this was unexpected. (I may be wrong.) $\endgroup$ – Giskard Jun 22 '15 at 18:51
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Depends on WHY you have the Euros.

If you are saving up with a BMW or a holiday in France, it is very different to you holding them just hoping the Euros will go up.

I expect that if Greece leaves OR if Greece remains after a REAL agreement is made and KEPT TO, then the Euro will not be effected much. But if Greece remains, but nothing changes in Greece, then the Euro will be dragged down by the next set of counties that think they can getaway with it.

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