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The first time I saw it, was in Stephen Harper's Master's Thesis

http://dspace.ucalgary.ca/bitstream/1880/24345/1/1991_Harper.pdf

It comes across as being very similar to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory, but I have not come across it in their writings as of yet.

Who was the one to first coin and formulate the theory?

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Quick Wikipedia found :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle

  • Look at the section of Politically based business cycle

The political business cycle theory is strongly linked to the name of Michał Kalecki who discussed "the reluctance of the 'captains of industry' to accept government intervention in the matter of employment."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micha%C5%82_Kalecki

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The first scholar to model the intuition behind the political business cycle is William Nordhaus in a REStud article (1975).

Nordhaus (1975) is thus widely believed to be the seminal article in the literature: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2296528?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

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