Questions tagged [autoregressive]

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What sanity checks to apply to reduced-form VAR model

When you build a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with macroeconomic variables, what sanity checks do you apply before identification? How do you ensure that the estimation/coefficients are ...
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AR(q) Strongly Stationary

Consider an AR(q) process, $u_t$. If the roots of a characteristic polynomial are outside of the unit circle, the AR(q) process is weakly stationary. I've seen this proof that proceeds by showing the ...
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1 vote
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194 views

Modelling GDP growth rates with an AR(1) process

I am trying to model the growth rates of real output per worker. I read that GDP growth rates are often assumed to be stationary and are modelled using an AR(1) process, so I took logs and then took ...
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Johansen test explanation

I am trying to understand the whole Johansen procedure via wikipedia and some other articles and I'm a noob in econometrics so there is a lot of notation and jargon that I think I am not familiar with....
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Replicate Romer and Romer (2004) results

I am trying to replicate figure 2 from Romer and Romer's (2004) paper on monetary shocks (http://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/AER_September04.pdf). Essentially, having generated a series for ...
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3 votes
2 answers
163 views

What is the reason why ARIMA(0,1,0) on $y_t$ and ARIMA(0,0,0) on diff($y_t$) are not identical time-series models?

I studied at BA level, that ARIMA(0,1,0) on $y_t$ and ARIMA(0,0,0) on diff($y_t$) are the same models. I am doing the Box–Jenkins model estimation on the historic data of US unemployment rate. My ...
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2 votes
2 answers
276 views

How do I choose the correct model for a regression?

So the central question of my project is to what extent does a country's level of export contibution towards GDP (i.e. exports as a % of total GDP) affect its GDP growth. I'm comparing this ...
2 votes
0 answers
92 views

How can I construct a process for cumulative returns that is riskless?

This question is a little more specific than the title. Here I use the same notation that is set forth in this other question about cumulative returns (the sum of return observations). That is, let \$...
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1 vote
2 answers
2k views

Formula for the unconditional variance of the sum of observations from an autoregressive time series

I have notes that say that we can make the following calculations. I'm a little confused about some of the calculations that are being made. What assumptions would I need to get the following results? ...
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