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Questions tagged [business-cycles]

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23 views

Great Recession, Great Depression and the stagflation

I am doing my master thesis about different crisis. I want to compare the Great Depression, the Stagflation and the Great Recession from a model-based approach. I have already developped and estimated ...
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1answer
10 views

Why are real interest rates so non-volatile compared to investment?

Intuitively I would guess that real interest rates are highly related to investment. But there is a very low interest rate volatility, compared to investment: log investment is about 20 times more ...
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1answer
45 views

Understanding the HP Filter

The HP Filter has two objectives, with the importance of each objective denoted by the user given value of lambda: Objective 1: minimize the $\tau_t$ in the term in the square brackets such that we ...
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2answers
100 views

Using metrics provided by FRED to identify the business cycle

I am interested to see how the "business cycle" is associated with our firms sales. The hope is that if we can show that our sales line up with the business cycle then we can make decisions ...
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0answers
65 views

Kiyotaki-Moore v.s. Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist - what's the difference?

What are the key differences between (i) a model which features a "Kiyotaki-Moore collateral constraint"; and (ii) a model which incorporates a "financial accelerator" (a la Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist)...
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1answer
656 views

What are the assumptions of real business cycle theory and Keynesian theory?

What are the differences between the approaches of Keynes and Real Business Cycle theorists? What are the assumptions made by both the theories? How do they differ in their methodology? Do they ...
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0answers
22 views

How to account for country business cycles in a panel analysis

My data is in panel format (countries by years): T=33 N=20 (or in another case 100). The dependent variable is the unemployment rate. I am interested in controlling for country-specific business ...
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1answer
57 views

Causality: Money supply and prices

When there is an increase in price level, real money supply decreases and raises interest rates. In a similar situation, when money supply decreases, interest rates increases, consumption decreases, ...
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1answer
7k views

No Ponzi game condition and transversality condition are the same?

Given the following non-stochastic planning problem with finite horizon, \begin{align} &\max_{\{k_{t+1}\}}\sum^T_{t=0}\beta^tU[f(k_t-k_{t+1})] \\ \text{s.t. } & 0\leq k_{t+1}\leq f(k_t)\\ &...
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0answers
21 views

Are there times when firms compete more with each other?

I have the impression that sometimes firms are fiercely competing with each other, innovating and trying to gain market share and other times when firms are just hanging on. Are there any references ...
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4answers
334 views

Lucas Cost of Business Cycles

I am trying to understand the logic behind Lucas attempting to analyse the potential benefits of eliminating business cycles by attempting to calculate the percentage of income that individuals would ...
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1answer
45 views

Is there a change over the business cycle in how much of economic activity is market-based?

Out of the total production in an economy, a big part is market-based, as when you make something and sell it. But a big part is not, as when you make something and don't sell it, but exchange it or ...
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2answers
77 views

What fraction of new businesses die out within a year?

Is there a simple way to figure out how many new businesses appear and disappear each year in the US economy? It seems a key question to figure out how the economy is changing over time, although I ...
2
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1answer
208 views

Is the basic RBC model a weak model?

There are a plethora of examples of weaknesses in my textbook, such as: The Walrasian assumption Not including nominal shocks Not including indivisible labour Not including distortionary taxes Not ...
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0answers
46 views

Lack of historical data for calibration of probability of default

It is a known fact that default rates seem to exhibit cyclic behavior. Most probability of default models use one-year averages of default rates to calibrate the models. The one-year averages should ...
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1answer
3k views

The period of the business cycle in which the real GDP is increasing is called the?

The period of the business cycle in which the real GDP is increasing is called the? And no, this is not an homework question. I'm a college student and we starting our exams soon. I'm just going ...
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0answers
35 views

Amazon's 1-Click Check Out : any feedback? [closed]

Does anyone have feedbacks or analysis on Amazon's 1-Click Check Out ? Any numbers about the conversion rates (before/after using the 1-click checkout button) , etc. ? This page is about a $300 ...
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2answers
58 views

Who first formulated the Political Business Cycle Theory?

The first time I saw it, was in Stephen Harper's Master's Thesis http://dspace.ucalgary.ca/bitstream/1880/24345/1/1991_Harper.pdf It comes across as being very similar to the Austrian Business Cycle ...
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2answers
145 views

Hypothetical Long-term Business Cycle

I was looking through my textbook on Money, Banking, and the Economy and I came to the chart of the hypothetical short-term business cycle deviating around an upward sloping long-term cycle trend. My ...
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0answers
41 views

Separation shock and business cycles

In the context of the Diamonds-Mortensen-Pissarides models, there was a reasoning why a separation shock cannot fit business cycles. I think it was brought forward by Shimer, but I could be wrong. ...
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2answers
105 views

Overview: Crises and their causes

There have been many business cycles in the US over the past 50 years (although less so since the great moderation). Many of us youngsters are too young to remember many of these. Is there some ...
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2answers
646 views

Simulating Real Business Cycle

Basically I need to replicate Hartley's 'A User's Guide to Solving Real Business Cycle Models' (http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/kdsalyer/LECTURES/Ecn235a/Linearization/ugfinal.pdf). Specifically, ...
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1answer
68 views

Firm Sizes over the business cycle

There has been a lot of evidence about the firm size distribution (as measured in employment) being Pareto (see for example Luttmer 2007), but what are the properties of this distribution over the ...
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1answer
323 views

Are profits procyclical?

This is somewhat related, but distinct from Cyclicality of Markups Basically, I'm looking for papers on whether firms profits are (on average) procyclical or not, and I appreciate theoretical, but ...
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1answer
190 views

Is the S&P 500 now in a boom-bust cycle?

This question was originally posted at money.stackexchange but was moved here per a commentor's suggestion after the question was put on hold for being opinion-based. The original question was: ...
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1answer
101 views

Does RBC models pin down equilibrium output, amount of labor and capital without initial condition?

In ordinary equilibrium models, we can pin down equilibrium quantity by supply-demand functions. Is this the same in RBC models? Can we pin down equilibrium output and amount of labor and capital ...
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1answer
171 views

Credit Frictions as the source of Business Cycles

Many papers look at the impact of credit frictions onto business cycles, and they almost unambiguously find that credit frictions work as an amplification mechanism of other shocks. For example, ...
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2answers
142 views

Schumpeterian Business Cycles

The basic idea of Schumpeterian Business Cycles is that new technologies require creative destruction but will yield positive growth. These two opposing forces have impacts onto the real economy at ...