Questions tagged [causality]

The relationship between cause and effect.

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2 answers
11k views

What are the difference between industry fixed effects and industry*year fixed effects?

In some papers, in column 4 Table 1, the author used firms fixed effects and industry*year fixed effect at the same time. I have two questions here: What does industry * year fixed effect mean? What ...
3 votes
1 answer
133 views

SVAR causal interpretation: shock effects vs effects between variables

Consider a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. One way to define a SVAR model is $$ \begin{aligned} B_0 y_t = B_1 y_{t-1} + \cdots + B_p y_{t-p} + \omega_t \quad (1) \ , \end{aligned} $$ ...
2 votes
0 answers
36 views

Staggered difference-in-difference for binary outcome and time-to-outcome

I am trying to find out the effect of a training program for employees by answering 2 questions: Does taking training increase the probability of an employee getting promoted? Does taking training ...
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0 answers
13 views

Regression and RDD give results in opposite directions but both statistically significant

I am conducting an RDD on an attitude and how it shifts over time due to a shock (sharp RD measured in days), I am using RDROBUST in STATA. I do not think I have coding errors but I need help ...
1 vote
1 answer
46 views

Abadie's Kappa (2003) for continuous treatments / IVs

Does somebody know if there exist results and estimators to deal with controls in IV estimation under heterogeneous treatment effects, analogous to Abadie's Kappa (2003) for the binary case? Abadie, ...
1 vote
1 answer
86 views

Granger-Sims causality and subtle differences

For a bivariate process $(\textbf{X},\textbf{Y})=( (X_t, Y_t)^\top, t\in\mathbb{Z})$, we say that the process $\textbf{X}$ Sims-causes the process $\textbf{Y}$ (notation $\textbf{X}\overset{Sims}{\to}...
2 votes
2 answers
225 views

How to correct selection bias in an econometric analysis?

We know that selection bias occurs when the treatment and control groups are not comparable, leading to differences in the outcome that are not solely due to the treatment. How does one address the ...
0 votes
0 answers
15 views

Predicting the Impact of War?

How would an economist go about predicting the impact of a potential war on a certain country's economy? Say we are interested in assessing the impact of a possible war over Taiwan on the GDP of ...
1 vote
2 answers
201 views

Diff-in-diff with two control groups: compare parallel trends

Suppose in a diff-in-diff problem, I have two control groups, but just one can be used as comparison, so I want to check which of them provides a better comparison. My idea is to compare the parallel ...
1 vote
0 answers
32 views

Heterogeneous treatment effects with two post-treatment time and without never-treated groups

I am trying to evaluate a policy with staggered policy time (the policy was implemented in two different years), and there are no never-treated groups. The data (four-time period, highly unbalanced - ...
0 votes
3 answers
60 views

Causal link between business expansion and profit

I'm working on a conceptual model regarding a restaurant business looking to expand (by adding more restaurants). In that model, there are several variables which lead to lowering costs or increasing ...
0 votes
1 answer
43 views

Simultaneous Causality and Variance within a supply and demand model

Given two single-variable regression equations, one for Demand and one for Supply, both with error terms and a constant. How does one solve for equilibrium quantity, price? Obviously you can set ...
2 votes
1 answer
64 views

Articles on the definition of causality in Economics

I am looking for illustrative "soft" articles on the definition of causality of Economics. Something to assign as a reading in a causal inference course. Any ideas?
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0 answers
13 views

Cross sectional survey - difference in difference campaign evaluation

I would like to use two cross sectional surveys to evaluate the impact of a media campaign on public opinions. The problem is how to identify the "untreated" at baseline? Technically ...
1 vote
2 answers
138 views

How to estimate loss of customers due to customer support inefficiency?

I have a data about customers and their activity on a website for a two-year period. Also, I have a customer support work evaluation data for a shorter period of that two-year period. The question is: ...
3 votes
1 answer
194 views

How does counterfactual for continuous variables work?

It is clear to me what counterfactual is and how it works for binary variables. However, I'm confused about how it works for continuous variables. For example, we are trying to estimate the effect of ...
6 votes
5 answers
604 views

The relation between econometrics and machine learning

In my understanding the utility of econometrics versus machine learning is generally argued to be the research of causality. If I'm not wrong, when we put aside experimental economics, the golden ...
3 votes
0 answers
42 views

Quantifying treatment effect in multivariate interrupted time series

I have a multivariate time series dataset, from which I am building an ITS (Interrupted Time Series) model by using facebook's Prophet to construct the counterfactual. Let's say I have a y variable ...
3 votes
1 answer
533 views

Difference-in-differences with long time horizon and repeated treatments

I have a high-frequency panel dataset on the order of $i=150$ and $t=5000$. I am interested in studying the causal impact of a treatment with the following characteristics: The same unit can be ...
1 vote
0 answers
13 views

Can I test Granger causality in cyclical components?

I want to test Granger causality test in cyclical components of GDP and private credit, obtained with Christiano-Fitzgerald filter in annual growth rates of quarterly data. The main purpose is to find ...
2 votes
1 answer
162 views

Interacting covariates with the instrument in the first stage

If I want to run a 2 stage least squares (2SLS) regression with: Relationship of interest: $Y = \alpha + \beta X + \varepsilon $, where $X$ is the endogenous explanatory variable of interest. If I ...
0 votes
0 answers
32 views

Behavioral responses of tax policy on labour supply ( first time doing Difference in Differences)

I am trying to estimate the causal effects of the The Working Income Tax Benefit (WITB) on the labour supply of married women in Canada. The WITB is essentially equivalent to the EITC. I am looking at ...
1 vote
0 answers
50 views

What type of econometrics is practised most?

This might sound like a weird question, but what type of econometrics is most common in academia and / or the private sector? Here I am thinking about time series econometrics (Bayesian and ...
1 vote
1 answer
42 views

Where to find information to establish causation between economic policies and economic data?

I've merely taken a few economic courses in college -not an economics major-, so my knowledge regarding the field is limited. Lately I've been interested in learning about the economic impact of ...
8 votes
3 answers
5k views

Identifying assumption meaning

I am hoping to get a good explanation regarding what is meant by an identifying assumption. In many articles, under empirical strategy, authors state that: we exploit firm level variation to identify ...
2 votes
0 answers
63 views

Trade-off between "extent of controls" and "quasi-experimental"

I apologize in advance for a long and possibly misworded question. I am trying to get to something but I am not exactly sure how to explain it. Hopefully, you can bear with me and provide me with some ...
0 votes
2 answers
39 views

causal time series analysis economics

I want to analyse the relationship between the level of globalization,and the level of income inequality between two specific countries. however, I'm quite lost as to which method is good to use (in ...
0 votes
0 answers
53 views

How will Coronavirus affect Social Security solvency?

The Coronavirus (known by younger millennials as the "Boomer Plague") is estimated to have a cost of life between 100,000 - 240,000 Americans. According to the CDC approximately 80% of deaths ...
0 votes
0 answers
119 views

Causal Interpretation of $\beta_1$ with a Dummy explanatory variable

Suppose you run a regression (over the entire sample) of hourly earnings $Y$ with an intercept and a binary variable $D$, where $D$ takes on a value of $1$ if the individual has a college degree and $...
0 votes
0 answers
11 views

Where to find a list of U.S. policy changes for causal studies?

I'm currently trying to figure how the topic of my paper, which is supposed to be related to policy evaluation (causal inference). I thought it would be great if I could first obtain a list of recent ...
1 vote
0 answers
19 views

One Treated Unit That Becomes Untreated

Suppose I have a set of units $n_i, i = 1,...,N$. One unit was receiving a treatment $n_j = 1$ at times $t=1$ to $t=\tau$. All other units never received the treatment so $\forall t, n_i=0,i\neq j$. ...
0 votes
1 answer
57 views

Stock return predictability. Why do papers continue to use Granger Causality tests

There is a long literature on stock return predicabtility. When I read papers I see lots of authors still using granger causality tests. It is still prominently taught in undergrad and grad classess....
7 votes
1 answer
133 views

How time zones affects causality?

Considering that markets open in different time zones, in general the opening and closing times are different. I suppose that a stock market opening later (in the same day) receive information on the ...
1 vote
1 answer
61 views

Justification for my Random Effects estimation

I need to defend my use of the Random Effects (RE) estimator in my economics project. I've been told in cross validated that the proper place for the question is here. The causal effect of the ...
3 votes
1 answer
145 views

Does mathematical education imply a better salary?

In some sense this is a follow-up to Correlation between salary level and housing prices in a town There I was reminded to ask for causality, not correlation. I am interested in the causal effect of ...
3 votes
1 answer
45 views

I'm studying the effect of a law on a sector: how do I select the control group?

I'm planning on using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to estimate the impact of a sector-specific law on the firms in that sector. I need to create a control group and I have read somewhere in ...
3 votes
1 answer
98 views

Looking for discussion on equilibrium vs dynamic models in econometrics

I'm a statistician/machine learning scientist more familiar with molecular bio than economics. Trying to find out if an issue I perceive in bio modeling also occurs in econometric modeling. A common ...
1 vote
0 answers
167 views

Difference in Regression Discontinuity Estimates

Suppose I run a regression discontinuity design (RDD) for two different samples - say, separately for regions A and B of the same country. I get RDD estimates that are statistically significant in ...
1 vote
0 answers
44 views

Partial least square structural equation modeling

The Partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-PM, PLS-SEM) method to structural equation modeling allows estimating complex cause-effect relationship models with latent variables. This ...
0 votes
1 answer
45 views

Estimating causal effect for educated people on wages

I have a problem regarding causation and effect. I have a linear model $ wage=\beta_0+\beta_1educ+\beta_2female+\beta_3hourseworked+errorterm$ When I need to estimate the causal effect for educated ...
7 votes
2 answers
330 views

When can economists claim to "understand" an event or phenomenon?

It's a common refrain that economists still don't have a solid grasp of the causes of business cycles (in particular, the Great Depression), despite decades of serious study. What would it take to say ...
2 votes
1 answer
68 views

Group contamination in Regression Discontinuity

I'm an undergraduate student I have an empirical question regarding Regression Discontinuity and Diff-in-Diff methods. I'm currently evaluating the impact on fertility of a Conditional Cash Transfer ...
2 votes
0 answers
74 views

Professors Salary vs Alumni Earning: is the relation causal?

Elyase İskender posted in his blog an interesting plot correlating Professors Salary and Alumni Earnings Relation in US Universities. Is there a good way to establish causality here? Did the highest ...