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Any serious macro models for Greece's possible default or eurozone exit?

Since each news outlet says something about Greece these days, I wonder what serious economic research backs decisions made over the last seven years? The IMF papers on austerity, both early ones and ...
Anton Tarasenko's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
38 views

non strategic sovereign default

Much of the sovereign default literature (e.g., Arellano (2008), Bulow and Rogoff (1989)), considers that sovereign default is strategic: i.e., defaults occurs if the current benefits outweigh ...
user37250's user avatar
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1 vote
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Does IMF consider the international reputation of a country?

Hi I have three question below which I tried searching on internet and read a lot of literature as well. Besides all the literature sources I need to know some practical knowledge of people out there. ...
bhagya's user avatar
  • 11
1 vote
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31 views

Calculating risk interest rate within a two period model

I am trying to calculate how to determine the interest rate ( = risk free rate + premium) within the following model where a consumer decides to invest in a safe asset or in a risky asset. The utility ...
Bryan's user avatar
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1 vote
0 answers
26 views

Investments during recession

During Recession, banks loans decrease which leads to financial constraints and ultimately Investment suffers and declines. my question is - "Are loans lower because of demand or supply?" My ...
Varun Singh's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
30 views

How to determine the default probability of a county in a bond that is not in its native currency?

Consider the following case: Country P uses the currency Euro and gives p percent interest on a one year bond issued in Euro. Country Q uses the currency TL and gives q percent interest on a one ...
Our's user avatar
  • 282
1 vote
0 answers
59 views

Lack of historical data for calibration of probability of default

It is a known fact that default rates seem to exhibit cyclic behavior. Most probability of default models use one-year averages of default rates to calibrate the models. The one-year averages should ...
user avatar
0 votes
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104 views

Regression on default rates and backward extrapolation

Suppose that we have bankruptcy data representative for Small and Medium-sized enterprises in a country. We can therefore calculate default rates. Furthermore suppose that we found that GDP, ...
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