Questions tagged [forecasting]

Prediction of the future events. It is a special case of prediction, in the context of time series.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
1
vote
2answers
73 views

Building a time-series demand forecasting model

I am forecasting demand for certain types of goods and services, which I expect to be correlated to a sub-set of a basket of macroeconomic indicators (considering 15-20 indicators) I do not know ...
4
votes
1answer
37 views

How good is a forecast? (Many outputs)

I have several macroeconomic models (eg two DSGEs and a VAR). They each produce forecasts for GDP, inflation and unemployment, and I have data to test them on, going back years. How can I say which ...
0
votes
0answers
35 views

Forecast from DSGE

My basic understanding of a DSGE is that it comuptes the equilibrium values for GDP, inflation, etc and then shows you how these would respond to different hypothetical exogeneous shocks. How do you ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Percent change vs difference in logs: Which to prefer when forcasting non-stationary series with rare large excursions?

One of the most common ways to convert a non-stationary time series into a stationary one is to take the difference in logs. This is approximately equal to the percentage change for small changes, and ...
2
votes
1answer
83 views

Did William Nordhaus exclude 87% of economic industries from his climate change analysis?

Economist Steve Keen published in article in 2020 titled, The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change. In it, he alleges that climate economists such as William Nordhaus and Richard ...
0
votes
0answers
54 views

Panel Data: Fill missing values (on ends) to balance dataset?

So I have this project to work on with panel data. I am using a dataset featuring most European countries and some of my variables are Macroeconomic such as GDP, GDP per Capita. Thing is, for some ...
1
vote
1answer
43 views

Oil prices forecast methods

Oil prices have a significant impact on the world economy, positive for exporters and negative for importers to oversimplify a bit. They are also known to be highly volatile, and depend on hard to ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views

Forecast Distribution Dynamic Factor Models

I have a Dynamic Factor Model with Kalman Filter. I would like to get my forecast distribution. Is it possible to estimate PDF of my forecast? If yes, how can I do it?
0
votes
1answer
23 views

Can you recursively forecast one variable using two variables?

My question is probably very elementary but I haven't been able to find an explanation of recursive forecasting that I fully understand. I've read a journal article that seemed to recursively ...
2
votes
0answers
52 views

What's the advantage of DSGE relative to BVARs?

DSGE models and BVARs are commonly used in academia and policy circles. They generate different performances (e.g., in forecasting) and perhaps serve different purposes. Notwithstanding, they have a ...
3
votes
5answers
342 views

The economics of a “no deal” Brexit

A "no deal" Brexit is presented in negative terms. In such a scenario the UK would set tariff schedules in line with trade strategy and protect domestic industry/agriculture with tariff rate quotas. ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Is a high borrowing rate bad?

I'm not an economist, so this may be a stupid question, but why are high borrowing rates among individuals and corporations bad? Like, I've heard high student and credit card debt mentioned as reasons ...
1
vote
1answer
95 views

Should the seed be set in forecasting returns in a MCMC

Suppose we are estimating a linear model utilizing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique such as a Gibbs sampler, drawing from the posteriors in a Bayes framework. Suppose the full sample of data we ...
3
votes
2answers
78 views

Will the third Heathrow runway fill up within 25 years?

From a Wired article published 9 June 2018 about the proposed third Heathrow Airport runway: But Warnock-Smith1 warns that Heathrow will eventually fill up again unless air travel is redistributed ...
6
votes
2answers
140 views

Predicted recessions that never happened

It seems generally accepted that recessions are hard to forecast, in both onset and intensity, but the bias seems to be toward rosy outlooks: The main finding is that, while forecasters are ...