Questions tagged [forecasting]
Prediction of the future events. It is a special case of prediction, in the context of time series.
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Panel Data: Fill missing values (on ends) to balance dataset?
So I have this project to work on with panel data. I am using a dataset featuring most European countries and some of my variables are Macroeconomic such as GDP, GDP per Capita. Thing is, for some ...
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1answer
42 views
Oil prices forecast methods
Oil prices have a significant impact on the world economy, positive for exporters and negative for importers to oversimplify a bit.
They are also known to be highly volatile, and depend on hard to ...
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0answers
15 views
Forecast Distribution Dynamic Factor Models
I have a Dynamic Factor Model with Kalman Filter. I would like to get my forecast distribution. Is it possible to estimate PDF of my forecast? If yes, how can I do it?
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1answer
21 views
Can you recursively forecast one variable using two variables?
My question is probably very elementary but I haven't been able to find an explanation of recursive forecasting that I fully understand.
I've read a journal article that seemed to recursively ...
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0answers
51 views
What's the advantage of DSGE relative to BVARs?
DSGE models and BVARs are commonly used in academia and policy circles.
They generate different performances (e.g., in forecasting) and perhaps serve different purposes. Notwithstanding, they have a ...
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0answers
21 views
Is a high borrowing rate bad?
I'm not an economist, so this may be a stupid question, but why are high borrowing rates among individuals and corporations bad? Like, I've heard high student and credit card debt mentioned as reasons ...
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1answer
68 views
Should the seed be set in forecasting returns in a MCMC
Suppose we are estimating a linear model utilizing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique such as a Gibbs sampler, drawing from the posteriors in a Bayes framework. Suppose the full sample of data we ...
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2answers
65 views
Building a time-series demand forecasting model
I am forecasting demand for certain types of goods and services, which I expect to be correlated to a sub-set of a basket of macroeconomic indicators (considering 15-20 indicators)
I do not know ...
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5answers
340 views
The economics of a “no deal” Brexit
A "no deal" Brexit is presented in negative terms.
In such a scenario the UK would set tariff schedules in line with trade strategy and protect domestic industry/agriculture with tariff rate quotas.
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2answers
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Will the third Heathrow runway fill up within 25 years?
From a Wired article published 9 June 2018 about the proposed third Heathrow Airport runway:
But Warnock-Smith1 warns that Heathrow will eventually fill up again unless air travel is redistributed ...
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2answers
138 views
Predicted recessions that never happened
It seems generally accepted that recessions are hard to forecast, in both onset and intensity, but the bias seems to be toward rosy outlooks:
The main finding is that, while forecasters are ...
