# Questions tagged [forecasting]

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### Can you recursively forecast one variable using two variables?

My question is probably very elementary but I haven't been able to find an explanation of recursive forecasting that I fully understand. I've read a journal article that seemed to recursively ...
8 views

### Is there a specific test for this procedure? (NKPC and coefficient stability)

I'm running a GMM regression in order to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips Curve, with forecasting purpose, and i want to know if there is a testing procedure for the following problem: (i) First i ...
43 views

### What's the advantage of DSGE relative to BVARs?

DSGE models and BVARs are commonly used in academia and policy circles. They generate different performances (e.g., in forecasting) and perhaps serve different purposes. Notwithstanding, they have a ...
22 views

### Forecasting in Real and Nominal Prices

I have a question about how to a create price forecast for a good in nominal and real terms. Using crop prices as an simple example where you believe the price of a crop is related to a stock-to-use ...
18 views

### Is a high borrowing rate bad?

I'm not an economist, so this may be a stupid question, but why are high borrowing rates among individuals and corporations bad? Like, I've heard high student and credit card debt mentioned as reasons ...
27 views

### Forecasting Volatility through GARCH and EGARCH models

I am at a final stage of my dissertation but I am a bit confused. I am trying to forecast volatility by using returns through GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models. I use daily prices of indexes to ...
31 views

### Should the seed be set in forecasting returns in a MCMC

Suppose we are estimating a linear model utilizing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique such as a Gibbs sampler, drawing from the posteriors in a Bayes framework. Suppose the full sample of data we ...
38 views

### Building a time-series demand forecasting model

I am forecasting demand for certain types of goods and services, which I expect to be correlated to a sub-set of a basket of macroeconomic indicators (considering 15-20 indicators) I do not know ...
329 views

### The economics of a “no deal” Brexit

A "no deal" Brexit is presented in negative terms. In such a scenario the UK would set tariff schedules in line with trade strategy and protect domestic industry/agriculture with tariff rate quotas. ...
72 views

### Will the third Heathrow runway fill up within 25 years?

From a Wired article published 9 June 2018 about the proposed third Heathrow Airport runway: But Warnock-Smith1 warns that Heathrow will eventually fill up again unless air travel is redistributed ...