Questions tagged [forecasting]
The forecasting tag has no usage guidance.
13
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1
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1answer
39 views
Oil prices forecast methods
Oil prices have a significant impact on the world economy, positive for exporters and negative for importers to oversimplify a bit.
They are also known to be highly volatile, and depend on hard to ...
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0answers
14 views
Forecast Distribution Dynamic Factor Models
I have a Dynamic Factor Model with Kalman Filter. I would like to get my forecast distribution. Is it possible to estimate PDF of my forecast? If yes, how can I do it?
0
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1answer
20 views
Can you recursively forecast one variable using two variables?
My question is probably very elementary but I haven't been able to find an explanation of recursive forecasting that I fully understand.
I've read a journal article that seemed to recursively ...
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0answers
8 views
Is there a specific test for this procedure? (NKPC and coefficient stability)
I'm running a GMM regression in order to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips Curve, with forecasting purpose, and i want to know if there is a testing procedure for the following problem:
(i) First i ...
2
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0answers
47 views
What's the advantage of DSGE relative to BVARs?
DSGE models and BVARs are commonly used in academia and policy circles.
They generate different performances (e.g., in forecasting) and perhaps serve different purposes. Notwithstanding, they have a ...
0
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0answers
22 views
Forecasting in Real and Nominal Prices
I have a question about how to a create price forecast for a good in nominal and real terms.
Using crop prices as an simple example where you believe the price of a crop is related to a stock-to-use ...
1
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0answers
18 views
Is a high borrowing rate bad?
I'm not an economist, so this may be a stupid question, but why are high borrowing rates among individuals and corporations bad? Like, I've heard high student and credit card debt mentioned as reasons ...
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0answers
30 views
Forecasting Volatility through GARCH and EGARCH models
I am at a final stage of my dissertation but I am a bit confused.
I am trying to forecast volatility by using returns through GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models.
I use daily prices of indexes to ...
1
vote
1answer
37 views
Should the seed be set in forecasting returns in a MCMC
Suppose we are estimating a linear model utilizing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique such as a Gibbs sampler, drawing from the posteriors in a Bayes framework. Suppose the full sample of data we ...
1
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2answers
55 views
Building a time-series demand forecasting model
I am forecasting demand for certain types of goods and services, which I expect to be correlated to a sub-set of a basket of macroeconomic indicators (considering 15-20 indicators)
I do not know ...
3
votes
5answers
332 views
The economics of a “no deal” Brexit
A "no deal" Brexit is presented in negative terms.
In such a scenario the UK would set tariff schedules in line with trade strategy and protect domestic industry/agriculture with tariff rate quotas.
...
3
votes
2answers
76 views
Will the third Heathrow runway fill up within 25 years?
From a Wired article published 9 June 2018 about the proposed third Heathrow Airport runway:
But Warnock-Smith1 warns that Heathrow will eventually fill up again unless air travel is redistributed ...
6
votes
2answers
132 views
Predicted recessions that never happened
It seems generally accepted that recessions are hard to forecast, in both onset and intensity, but the bias seems to be toward rosy outlooks:
The main finding is that, while forecasters are ...
