Questions tagged [oil]

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Oil prices forecast methods

Oil prices have a significant impact on the world economy, positive for exporters and negative for importers to oversimplify a bit. They are also known to be highly volatile, and depend on hard to ...
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1answer
28 views

Why would oil suppliers choose a lower priced contract?

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract has ranged from \$6 to \$20 in the last 48 hours. The May Shanghai International futures contract is 205 Yuan (CNY). At 7 CNY per USD, that comes ...
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Why didn't other oil pricing benchmarks such as Brent go negative?

This question is asking why the oil (in this case, WTI) price is negative. While I think I have broadly understood why WTI collapsed, I don't really understand why other oil pricing benchmarks didn'...
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Why is the oil future price negative?

I don't understand why the price of oil futures went negative today. News say it is because sellers cannot sell it. But, why don't they just hoard it until the coronavirus crisis is off? Why don't ...
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1answer
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Why could boasting oil during the current drop in oil demand be good for Saudi Arabia?

According to Bloomberg : Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries in the world that can boast crude production that’s profitable in the current environment. But the kingdom’s economy is at risk, ...
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1answer
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Low oil price and impact

Today I read an artcicle about the falling oil price (maybe it'll go under 30$ per barel the next days). Why is this a bad news? Lower oil price can give an advantage for a higher productivity.
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3answers
91 views

Why is oil being traded in U.S. dollars?

I am trying to understand the concept of money,forex, depreciation of currency,devaluing,...(just the basic stuff). While I was reading about why oil is being traded in U.S. dollars, on the internet, ...
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1answer
43 views

How exactly did Venezuela's economy fail?

Venezuela has unfortunately become the example of a first-world, wealthy democracy failing, and I'd like to make sure I understand why. My understanding comes down to a few major steps, namely: ...
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0answers
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Can the effect of different prices of gasoline at different gas stations be measured?

I am looking for studies in which the effect on demand of different prices of gasoline at different gas stations in the same area is measured or estimated (on the same day or hour). This question ...
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0answers
20 views

Is oil supply really inelastic in the short term

Is oil supply really inelastic in the short run? Though it remains evident that in the short run, the known capacities of oil can't be increased and hence we can assume that there remains a upper cap ...
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0answers
29 views

What do the excess supply and demand numbers in this chart mean?

From Econ 101, I thought markets are supposed to equilibrate so that there isn't any excess supply or excess demand. But from a WSJ story, we have the chart below. I believe it says, for example, ...
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1answer
219 views

Was the 2008 financial crisis caused more by the US subprime mortgage lending or more by an international energy and oil pricing crisis?

I recently read The Big Short by Michael Lewis in which the depiction of the role of subprime mortgage lending in the US and then run away speculation on CDOs are shown to be the central and primary ...
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0answers
28 views

Will there be any significant impact if oil was priced/traded in another currency other than USD?

There is an abundance of conspiracy theories online that the USD is propped up in part by the fact that oil is traded in USD, and that countries which think about allowing trades in a different ...
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2answers
38 views

Crude oil price changing factors

I tried to summarize my thoughts about oil price changes, and try to understand the next weeks. Will decrease price: OPEC output is higher every month, increasing supply. interest rates goes up, ...
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1answer
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Would a very cheap renewable energy source be harmful economically?

This question is not on whether these devices work or not but so much as if they did work. What if electricity can be made so cheap that everyone could afford it ti the point there was no demand for ...
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1answer
35 views

Why does a lack of pipelines cause Canadian crude oil to trade at a discount compared to US crude oil?

There is an ongoing political battle in Canada about the proposed expansion of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline. One argument in favour of the expansion that is repeated by just about every ...
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1answer
39 views

Oil price decreases due to supply decrease?

I am reading this article on the Financial Times: Oil prices hit as US gulf coast faces hurricane If the production of oil is forecast to decrease, that means the supply would decrease. Surely the ...
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1answer
811 views

Simple model to predict oil prices

Back when Hugo Chavez was still alive (former leader of Venezuela), he said they made "simulations" to predict how much oil prices will increase if they retire the supply of oil they were giving to ...
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0answers
23 views

Oil prices and data frequency

Does higher frequency data have a larger effect on next day crude oil prices than data with lower periodicity? Looking at demand and supply indicators for crude oil, such as opec / non-opec ...
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1answer
39 views

How to measure expected price growth rate for oil?

How can someone measure the expected annual price growth rate for oil? Also, where can I find past annual price growth rate for oil values? Any help would be appreciated.
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0answers
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Falling oil prices but no benefits passed on to the end user; government's strategy

Even though the oil prices have fallen rapidly in the recent years, the cost of petroleum products hasn't gone down in India. Apart from raising more revenue, what are the other benefits the ...
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1answer
58 views

How are petro states able to maintain gasoline subsidies without black market export smuggling?

I don't understand how petro states can have crazy low gasoline prices without smugglers exporting the gasoline and selling it elsewhere. For example, in Venezuela the domestic price of gasoline is ...
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1answer
70 views

Crude oil benchmarks and production places

I discovered recently that there are 3 main price indicators for crude oil (used by the IMF): WTI, Dubaï, and UK Brent. If I understand correctly, each place trades some specific kind of oil (with ...
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1answer
52 views

Saudi Arabia motivations for OPEC production cut

I'm wondering whether one of Saudi Arabia's principle motivations for supporting OPEC production cuts is so that the price of crude oil will increase and so Saudi Aramco, Saudi's state-owned oil ...
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2answers
339 views

How helpful is Hotelling's Rule in determining the price of oil?

After posting this question, I realized that there was quite a bit of controversy surrounding the use of Hotelling's Rule to estimate the price of oil. Participants on this site seemed to be evenly ...
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1answer
72 views

Why are oil prices increasing in India despite countervailing trends in the international market?

Crude oil price is decreasing in the international market. But in India, the price of petrol and diesel is gradually increasing. Why?
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3answers
175 views

Russian ruble drop in value due to low oil prices

http://www.americanactionforum.org/research/impact-falling-oil-prices-russian-financing/ Based on the above article, the author states that "For budgeting, this favors the oil exporter, because a ...
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1answer
47 views

Which elements to forecast/estimate Oil/Pretroleum derivatives, would you consider?

I mean, if you had to forecast the price or production volumes of polyethylene or polyurethane, for example, which elements would you include to the model, in addition to oil crude prices/volumes? ...
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1answer
79 views

Why is oil price increasing in May 2016

Why is the oil price and correspondingly the down and midstream company stock prices are increasing in May 2016, when The economic data across the world in weak China's economy is sluggish. They had ...
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1answer
76 views

OPEC's market share strategy: What is the benefit of market share in a fungible market?

Coverage of the recent fall in oil prices frequently mentions OPEC's decision to defend their market share, sacrificing price in the process. I understand how market share is important from a ...
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6answers
486 views

Why do falling oil prices take stocks with it?

The price of oil fell again today and is now below $30/barrel for the first time in 12 years. Along with the fall came most of the US stock markets. If I didn't know any other information except for "...
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5answers
885 views

What is the reasoning behind the sharp fall of oil prices starting in mid 2014?

Things I have considered: Poor economic conditions around the world could have caused an unpredicted decrease in demand. The resulting surplus has begun driving prices down. This could be ...
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1answer
667 views

How successful will OPEC's predatory dumping strategy be?

Since the fracking industry in the US has started to grow rapidly, I have heard increasing reports that OPEC is attempting some form of predatory dumping in the hopes of making the fracking industry ...
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2answers
610 views

What benefits do OPEC countries obtain by cutting oil supply?

It is unclear to a economic novice like me why OPEC is not cutting down production and raising oil prices. I have read several journalists commenting upon this on the internet but perhaps an economist ...
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3answers
699 views

What is the impact of fracking on oil prices?

I read an article about the recent fall of gas prices in the US claiming that the fall in gas prices was due to the expansion of fracking within the US. The article said that, over the past few ...