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Questions tagged [prediction]

May refer to: 1. Statistical prediction of unknown random quantities, e.g. using a statistical model. 2. Theoretical prediction of how one variable responds to changes in another one in a theoretical model, e.g. Solow model predicts that in the long run, economies converge to their steady state equilibrium and that permanent growth is achievable only through technological progress.

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Value of a forecast

I am looking for quantitative measures for the value of a forecast. A forecast is more valuable to me if it tells me things that are not already implied by the conventional knowledge todate, and the ...
Shaibal Roy's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
37 views

Trouble understanding the equation that lays out the concept of prediction policy problems in Kleinberg et al. 2015

Kleinberg et al. (2015) introduce the concept of prediction policy problems, and claim to unite prediction problems and causal inference problems in a single framework. In section I of the paper, ...
Brash Equilibrium's user avatar
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Infer collective prices based on individual prices

Given a neighborhood with $m$ trash removal companies currently serving $n$ neighbors, each paying $p_m$ for the service, how would an economist calculate an expected price, $p_e$, in the event that ...
user121330's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
138 views

How will inflation affect foreclosure rates?

I should preface this by saying that I am not really familiar with or educated in economics. I have a hypothesis however, and I would like to know if there is research out there that supports or ...
Ryan's user avatar
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1 vote
1 answer
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What is the "prediction model" in Dasgupta (2019)?

In a paper, Dasgupta, 2019 used Difference-in-Difference approach to see whether anticollusion laws implemented by different countries (staggered implementation) affect firms financial flexibility. ...
Phil Nguyen's user avatar
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1 vote
0 answers
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Why do they always say: "this is not financial advice"? [closed]

Every single time there is a video about finance (especially Bitcoin), they always nag on about how: This is not financial advice. And then they give financial advice. Why do they have to say this? ...
E Shader's user avatar
0 votes
2 answers
77 views

How to weakly predict T-bill rates?

I know, I know -- if I could predict Treasuries, I could leverage that information, various forms of the EMH, etc. But a lot of people have mortgages (ARMs) tied to US1Y, and so having some kind of ...
Charles's user avatar
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1 answer
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What is economic nowcasting?

I am looking for a short review article on "economic nowcasting". Is there something recommended for someone interested in data science?
apg's user avatar
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1 vote
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Assessing the ability of dividend yields to predict stock returns using out-of-sample forecast errors

In Introduction to Econometrics, 3rd Edition, by Stock and Watson, there is a short example about evaluating the ability of using dividend yields (current dividends over price) to predict future stock ...
jmbejara's user avatar
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2 votes
1 answer
27 views

Economics and formulating predictions

I was just wondering as a science major, science can be done through inductive reasoning at first by trying to gather examples and information through observation then coming to general conclusion or ...
Aurora Borealis's user avatar
1 vote
2 answers
177 views

How technology will help economists to do better predictions?

Would technologies as AI, BI and Big Data help the economists to make better predictions and test models to solve problems like "What level of fiscal stimulus is better for a especific country?" Is ...
Guilherme de Jesus Santos's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
43 views

Can data from discrete choice experiments be used to predict models be used to predict willingnes to pay by specific individuals?

I am not an econometrician, but noticed that discrete choice experiments are often used to determine willingness to pay for products with specific characteristics and prices. However, these average ...
Ricardo Pietrobon's user avatar
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1 answer
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Financial markets predictions [closed]

How do economists/investors predict supply and demand in financial markets such as indices, currencies, etc?
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3 votes
2 answers
86 views

Prediction Interval for $E(y|X_0)$ when model is in $ln(y)$

Let's suppose we have linear regression with dependent variable $ln(y)$. How would one find a prediction interval for $E(y|X_0)$ ? If we have $PI(E(ln(y)|X_0))$, is there a way to reach $PI(E(y|X_0))...
An old man in the sea.'s user avatar
7 votes
3 answers
242 views

Predicting $y$ when response variable is $\ln(y)$

My estimated model is $$\hat \ln(y_t)=9.873-0.472\ln(x_{t2})-0.01x_{t3}$$ I'm asked to find a predictive CI at 95% confidence for the mean of $y_0$, when $x_{02}=250$, and $x_{03}=8$. We're to ...
An old man in the sea.'s user avatar