Questions tagged [prediction]
May refer to: 1. Statistical prediction of unknown random quantities, e.g. using a statistical model. 2. Theoretical prediction of how one variable responds to changes in another one in a theoretical model, e.g. Solow model predicts that in the long run, economies converge to their steady state equilibrium and that permanent growth is achievable only through technological progress.
14
questions
0
votes
0
answers
21
views
Infer collective prices based on individual prices
Given a neighborhood with $m$ trash removal companies currently serving $n$ neighbors, each paying $p_m$ for the service, how would an economist calculate an expected price, $p_e$, in the event that ...
- 101
0
votes
0
answers
14
views
Predicting the Impact of War?
How would an economist go about predicting the impact of a potential war on a certain country's economy?
Say we are interested in assessing the impact of a possible war over Taiwan on the GDP of ...
- 327
2
votes
0
answers
124
views
How will inflation affect foreclosure rates?
I should preface this by saying that I am not really familiar with or educated in economics. I have a hypothesis however, and I would like to know if there is research out there that supports or ...
- 121
1
vote
1
answer
61
views
What is the "prediction model" in Dasgupta (2019)?
In a paper, Dasgupta, 2019 used Difference-in-Difference approach to see whether anticollusion laws implemented by different countries (staggered implementation) affect firms financial flexibility.
...
- 1,090
1
vote
0
answers
103
views
Why do they always say: "this is not financial advice"? [closed]
Every single time there is a video about finance (especially Bitcoin), they always nag on about how:
This is not financial advice.
And then they give financial advice.
Why do they have to say this? ...
- 11
0
votes
2
answers
70
views
How to weakly predict T-bill rates?
I know, I know -- if I could predict Treasuries, I could leverage that information, various forms of the EMH, etc. But a lot of people have mortgages (ARMs) tied to US1Y, and so having some kind of ...
- 175
0
votes
1
answer
51
views
What is economic nowcasting?
I am looking for a short review article on "economic nowcasting". Is there something recommended for someone interested in data science?
- 103
1
vote
0
answers
34
views
Assessing the ability of dividend yields to predict stock returns using out-of-sample forecast errors
In Introduction to Econometrics, 3rd Edition, by Stock and Watson, there is a short example about evaluating the ability of using dividend yields (current dividends over price) to predict future stock ...
- 9,345
2
votes
1
answer
26
views
Economics and formulating predictions
I was just wondering as a science major, science can be done through inductive reasoning at first by trying to gather examples and information through observation then coming to general conclusion or ...
- 143
1
vote
2
answers
173
views
How technology will help economists to do better predictions?
Would technologies as AI, BI and Big Data help the economists to make better predictions and test models to solve problems like "What level of fiscal stimulus is better for a especific country?"
Is ...
1
vote
1
answer
41
views
Can data from discrete choice experiments be used to predict models be used to predict willingnes to pay by specific individuals?
I am not an econometrician, but noticed that discrete choice experiments are often used to determine willingness to pay for products with specific characteristics and prices. However, these average ...
0
votes
1
answer
36
views
Financial markets predictions [closed]
How do economists/investors predict supply and demand in financial markets such as indices, currencies, etc?
user15210
3
votes
2
answers
82
views
Prediction Interval for $E(y|X_0)$ when model is in $ln(y)$
Let's suppose we have linear regression with dependent variable $ln(y)$. How would one find a prediction interval for $E(y|X_0)$ ?
If we have $PI(E(ln(y)|X_0))$, is there a way to reach $PI(E(y|X_0))...
- 5,061
7
votes
3
answers
237
views
Predicting $y$ when response variable is $\ln(y)$
My estimated model is
$$\hat \ln(y_t)=9.873-0.472\ln(x_{t2})-0.01x_{t3}$$
I'm asked to find a predictive CI at 95% confidence for the mean of $y_0$, when $x_{02}=250$, and $x_{03}=8$. We're to ...
- 5,061