Questions tagged [probability]

A branch of statistics that studies the likelihood of uncertain events occurring.

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About The Bayesian Conditional-Probability Systems in Myerson's Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict

I am self-studying game theory using Myerson's Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict. I got some trouble understanding his Bayesian conditional-probability system. The Bayesian conditional-probability ...
Beerus's user avatar
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Understanding the notations in Bayesian game definition

I am having trouble understanding the definition of a Bayesian game based on the following definition from class. I would appreciate it if you could explain the notations and overall meaning for point ...
coderDcoder's user avatar
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transition probabilities from a AR(1) stochastic process

I have a stochastic volatility model for commodity price which follows an AR(1) process: ln(pt ) − m = ρ (ln(pt−1) − m) + exp(σt)ut ut ∼ IID(0, 1) σt − μ = ρσ(σt−1 − μ) + ηεt εt ∼ IID(0, 1) ...
Nusrat's user avatar
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4 votes
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Deriving an equation in Banerjee "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior" (1992)

I am reading "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior" by Banerjee (1992). A short summary of the model is the following. There is a probability $\alpha$ that each person receives a signal telling ...
James_'s user avatar
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Probability for Economics

I need to learn ASAP on the list of topics: Multivariate Distribution, discrete and continuous random variables; integration and expectation; law of large numbers and central limit theorem, confidence ...
Big Smile's user avatar
2 votes
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24 views

Estimating excess probability

I have three players A,B,C, where C ideally functions as a baseline. They play different games (not against each other) and I can observe their win probability, for example P(A wins in game I) = 90%, ...
ProGeologist's user avatar
5 votes
1 answer
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Third price auction from Auction Theory by Krishna, Order statistics

Notation: $Y_1$: Highest order statistics of $(N-1)$ players' valuation. $F_n^M:$ The distribution function of the highest $n$th order statistics of $M$ players. $f_n^M:$ The density of the highest $n$...
Longye Tian's user avatar
2 votes
2 answers
115 views

What does it mean when I say that CDF is bounded away from 1?

Suppose $\theta \in [\underline\theta, \bar\theta]$ is distributed with CDF F(.). What does it mean when I say that this F is bounded away from 1? Does it mean that F can never take the value 1 in ...
Pc1's user avatar
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Why are Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibria special cases of Correlated Equilibria and Coarse Correlated Equilibria?

In a Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium, each player constructs their own probability distribution over the set of their respective possible strategies. In a Correlated Equilibrium or a Coarse Correlated ...
user10478's user avatar
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What does this notation mean?

I am following an IO paper and, at some point, a function $h(\cdot)\in \mathbb{R}^2_+$ is defined as $$h(t) = \cases{\mathbb{1}(t=k)*|\mathbb{N}(0,1)|\\\mathbb{1}(t<k)*|\mathbb{N}(0,1)|}$$ where $k\...
marcvaliente's user avatar
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Slight Uncertainty of Continuation in Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

In a repeated prisoner's dilemma with some probability δ of continuing after each round, a Subgame Perfect Nash Equilibrium may be found which induces cooperation instead of defection in each round. ...
user10478's user avatar
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Why is Stata omitting some of my variables and mfx not working?

I'm trying to do a probit regression with some categorical and continuous variables but Stata keeps omitting certain variables and even claiming that some can't be used to to collinearity problems (I ...
metrics.queen1's user avatar
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How realistic is the conclusion that players do not change their mixing proportions in response to changes in their own payoffs?

A major lesson from game theory seems to be that in simultaneous move games, a player does not change mixing proportions in response to changes in their own payoffs. Rather, their opponents change ...
user10478's user avatar
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Resampling for a Probabilistic Model to Balance Outcomes

I wanted to construct a logit model for determining the probability a recession will be determined for any given month using the usual Macro indicators; however, I noticed that 90% of the months in my ...
Forgot the Jacobian's user avatar
3 votes
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Joint distribution from differential equations

I have the following problem - Z is a random variable which can take any real value in the range [0,1] a and b are independent variables drawn from uniform distribution in the interval [0,1]. Z is a ...
Elina Gilbert's user avatar
2 votes
1 answer
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Bayes’ rule in "The sources of capital misallocation"

I am reading a paper titled "The sources of capital misallocation". In the model, firms are facing incomplete information about their future productivities. In particular, the productivity ...
Seyed Mahdi's user avatar
3 votes
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A question about conditional expectation involving independence

If the vector $(u,v)$ is independent of the vector $x$, then I would like to show that $$E(u|x,v)= E(u|v)$$ The only thing I can derive from the definitions is that if $(u,v)$ is independent of $x$, ...
PSE's user avatar
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What is the intuition behind Blackwell's Equivalence Theorem on Information Structures?

Let us suppose that we have a Bayesian game where the information structure is defined to be as $P^X=\{(X,\mathcal{X},P_\theta)\}_{\theta\in\Theta}$ where a signal generated by the information ...
Hunger Learn's user avatar
1 vote
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Finding the risk attitude parameter in a CPT Risk Elicitation Model

I'm working with this article by Bauermeister et al. that compares the risk attitude parameters found using two different risk elicitation models. The models each use a series of gambling options to ...
kleinerde's user avatar
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Negative certainty equivalent

Let us consider an agent of initial wealth $w_0$ whose utility function is $u(x)=\sqrt{x}$. This individual faces a risk of loss $Z$ which occurs with probability $p$. It is assumed that $w_0=60000$, $...
weldon's user avatar
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2 votes
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Understanding the properties of extensive form games

In Heller et al, they use the Osborne and Rubinstein formal definition for the extensive form games with public information. To some point they refer to the following two properties $P$ is a mapping ...
Hunger Learn's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
57 views

Maximizing profit with a simple probabilistic production function (basic practice problem)

A restaurant finds that less orders for their soup of the day are placed on warmer days so they discount the usual 7USD price to 5USD on warmer days. The cost of making the soup is given by $$ C = 0.1{...
kleinerde's user avatar
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Model the uncertain impact of a proposed policy by expected utility or other probabilistic approach

The impact of a proposed policy is often uncertain and subjected to randomness. As such, it seems natural to use probabilistic models. How to model the policy impact using the expected utility ...
user141240's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
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Expected payoff calculation difficulty in the Bayesian environment of Bergemman and Morris

Suppose that we have two states of the world equally likely to occur, and say $\psi$ is the common prior of the state $\theta\in\Theta=\{G,B\}$. The types of the players are given by the following ...
Hunger Learn's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
48 views

Bayesian update in the beliefs about the signals

Suppose that we have tow states of the world $\omega_1$ and $\omega_2$, where $p(\omega_1)=p(\omega_1)=1/2$ and there are three different signals, $s_H,s_M,s_L$ that are equally likely to occur in ...
Nav89's user avatar
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The most used probability distributions in moral hazard models?

I'm engaged in making a variation of the canonical moral hazard model, but I need some examples of probability distributions to make some simulations and graphs. What are the probability distributions ...
Iriki's user avatar
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How to compare investments with different risk and expected return?

Supposing I can choose to invest money in several different investments, each having risk $\sigma_i$, for example, calculated as standard deviation and expected return $r_i$ let's assume they have ...
Paolo's user avatar
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Mechanisms of communication in game theory

In the spirit of the previous question that I have done, here considering the paper here I am trying to make the matching definition $2.2$ here. I will give two definitions and I would like to clarify ...
Nav89's user avatar
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4 votes
1 answer
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Difficulty in understanding the notation related from probability theory with game theory

The question that I have is a little technical and it has to do with the notation and the combination between some mathamatical properties in the probability theory of information economics. Say $\...
Nav89's user avatar
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What is the meaning of the support set in game theory?

What is the meaning of the support set in game theory? I have seen it, in many papers, however none there explains how did they find it or why did the define it in a specific way. I understand that ...
Nav89's user avatar
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4 votes
2 answers
123 views

Olivier Gossner - Secure Protocols or How Communication Generates Correlation

The paper of Olivier Gossner in Security Protocols in 1998 has some definitions that confuse me too much. I will cite here these definitions and my questions and I hope someone is familiar with these ...
Hunger Learn's user avatar
2 votes
0 answers
43 views

In economics, what variables do we usually assume to follow an exponential distribution?

In economics, what variables do we usually assume to follow an exponential distribution? I would like as many examples as possible, and it would be great if you have a rationale(economic reason or ...
ExcitedSnail's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
37 views

Interpretation of multinominal logit regression (Stata)

I have a few questions about mlogit. I have a set of independent variables and a categorical, but ordered, dependent variable with three categories (Disagree, Neutral and Agree). The assumptions for ...
Marlen's user avatar
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1 vote
0 answers
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Question on the choice of boundary in the CUSUM test when we make some resampling

Question on the choice of boundary in the CUSUM test when we make some resampling We are considering to make a CUSUM test for some economical time series $𝑋=(𝑥_1,..,x_n)$. Suppose 𝑋 contains many ...
Tatsuru Kikuchi's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
92 views

Expected value of order statistics for uniform distribution

I have $X$ ~ $U(0,1)$ interval. Let n=2, i.e. $X_1 < X_2$ I have to calculate the expected value of ${X_2}^{m/(1-m)}$. Where, $0≤m≤1$ I want to confirm if I have calculated it correctly? $$\int_0^1 ...
Elina Gilbert's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
68 views

Integration by parts with CDF

I am told that the following equality follows from integration by parts: $$\int_{R-k}^{1}(\theta-R)dG(\theta)-G(R-k)k=\int_{R-k}^{1}(1-G(\theta))d\theta-k$$ Where $R>k>0$ and $G$ is the CDF of $\...
Charles's user avatar
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1 answer
59 views

Is it worth betting on this case?

Let's imagine a coin-flip game, which uses an unbiased coin. Starting with X dollars, your total increases 50% every time you flip heads. But if the coin lands on tails, you lose 40% of your total. ...
Zaratruta's user avatar
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1 vote
1 answer
483 views

Show that conditional variance of error in linear probability model is heteroskedastic?

I have a problem that asks me the following: " Consider the linear probability model, in which we specify the regression equation to be linear in X, E(Y |X = x) = Pr(Y = 1|X = x) = x'β We can ...
jamesstealth's user avatar
3 votes
2 answers
209 views

How to average CDFs of one variable across years

I have wealth-to-income data for 10 years. I computed the cdf of this variable in each year. Now I'm trying to average the cdfs across years. In each each, the number of observations is different. ...
Susan's user avatar
  • 31
4 votes
2 answers
170 views

How to approach rigorous probability theory from an economics background?

I am attempting to read around the theory of probability theory from the ground up, coming from a background of economics I have little experience in set/measure theory, whilst I am not new to ...
user avatar
4 votes
1 answer
50 views

Average ability conditioning on having accepted an offer

There is a continuum of workers between 0 and 1. These have ability $\alpha\sim U[0,2]$. A firm offers them a salary $v$ and has profits $$ \pi = (\rho \alpha-v) n(v) $$ where $n(v)$ is the fraction ...
Three Diag's user avatar
3 votes
0 answers
37 views

Estimating probability of Central Bank's interest rate changes

Recently, I came across this article, which offers a simple model for estimating the probabilities of interest rate cut/hike from a central bank. This is done by using market data, especially normal ...
PK1998's user avatar
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1 vote
1 answer
344 views

Risk neutral probability for each of 3 states

I need help to find the risk-neutral probability for states 1,2 and 3 I have two stocks: A and B. The price of A today is 180 and in a year it will be worth 288 (S1), 180 (S2) or 120 (S3); The ...
alatriste's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
68 views

Modelling involving sum of random variables: Simple CDF?

This question emerges from a project in microeconomic modeling. I have $n$ agents receiving noisy i.i.d signals $s$. In my model, a situation of interest occurs when the average signal across $n$ ...
Martin Van der Linden's user avatar
3 votes
1 answer
124 views

Intertemporal choice with possibility of death

Here is the setup: Suppose that there is an individual who lives up to two periods. He lives with absolute certainty during period $1$, and during this period his sub-utility function is given by: $$...
David Bowman's user avatar
0 votes
1 answer
169 views

Expected Utility and Jensen's Inequality

Consider two random variables (costs and valuations) distributed $v\backsim G(.)$ and $c \backsim F(.)$ with pdfs $g(.)$ and $f(.)$. Let the supports of $c$ and $v$ be $[x,y]$. Let $x<a=E(v)<b&...
carlogambino's user avatar
1 vote
1 answer
92 views

Is the set of optimal strategies convex in a single-agent decision choice problem?

EDITED with insights from the comment below. Consider a decision maker who has to choose an action among $\mathcal{Y}\equiv \{1,2,...,L\}$. The payoff from choosing action $y\in \mathcal{Y}$ depends ...
user3285148's user avatar
1 vote
0 answers
61 views

Assessing risk in a decision problem with repeated toss

The problem starts at time t0. At each time step, the participant can choose to opt out and claim a loser's reward Rl. At each time step, the participant has a probability p to win a winner's reward ...
moritzthird's user avatar
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0 answers
48 views

Rate of convergence and asymptotic dominance in $\Vert x \Vert \gg \Vert(\hat\beta-\beta)\cdot u\Vert $

Let $\Vert A \Vert$ denote the spectral norm of a random matrix. Let $x$ and $u_k$ be N$\times$T matrices. Denote $\beta \cdot u = \sum_{k=1}^K\beta_ku_k $, where $\beta$ is a K-vector and $\beta_k$ a ...
econ86's user avatar
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1 vote
1 answer
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Probability of the event knowing that I received no informations

First I want to thank you if you pay attention to my post. I apologize if it seems elementary to you, note that I searched a lot an answer before posting. I have a particular informational framework ...
Alexandre's user avatar