Questions tagged [probability]

A branch of statistics that studies the likelihood of uncertain events occurring.

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6 votes
3 answers
7k views

Type - I Error & Type - II Error: Pregnancy test analogy - is it legit?

I found this picture in my stats book but I'm now confused to what 'positive' and 'negative' is referring to. As seen in the table below, Type 1 error is the error that its H0 is actually true but ...
1 vote
0 answers
65 views

Example of the change of measure proposed in Hansen (2012)

In this question, I'm continuing to explore the tools used/presented in Lars Hansen's Econometrica paper "Dynamic Valuation Decomposition within Stochastic Economies" (2012). I'm trying to compute an ...
  • 9,165
13 votes
3 answers
1k views

Understanding the construction of stochastic processes

I've seen stochastic processes modeled/constructed in the following way. Consider the probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal F, Pr)$ and let $\mathbb S$ be the (measurable) transformation $\...
  • 9,165
3 votes
1 answer
152 views

Difficulty in understanding the notation related from probability theory with game theory

The question that I have is a little technical and it has to do with the notation and the combination between some mathamatical properties in the probability theory of information economics. Say $\...
  • 448
2 votes
1 answer
175 views

Understanding the properties of extensive form games

In Heller et al, they use the Osborne and Rubinstein formal definition for the extensive form games with public information. To some point they refer to the following two properties $P$ is a mapping ...
1 vote
1 answer
74 views

Is the set of optimal strategies convex in a single-agent decision choice problem?

EDITED with insights from the comment below. Consider a decision maker who has to choose an action among $\mathcal{Y}\equiv \{1,2,...,L\}$. The payoff from choosing action $y\in \mathcal{Y}$ depends ...
1 vote
1 answer
90 views

Mechanisms of communication in game theory

In the spirit of the previous question that I have done, here considering the paper here I am trying to make the matching definition $2.2$ here. I will give two definitions and I would like to clarify ...
  • 448
7 votes
1 answer
216 views

Pricing a European call option while absence of arbitrage is violated

Assume that we have a general one-period market model consisting of d+1 assets and N states. Using a replicating portfolio $\phi$, determine $\Pi(0;X)$, the price of a European call option, with ...
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