# Questions tagged [probability]

A branch of statistics that studies the likelihood of uncertain events occurring.

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### How to interpret the proof that information cascades will form?

I am reading the 1992 paper of Bikchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch on information cascades. They claim and prove that, given an environment of sequential decision making, an information cascade will ...
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### Estimating probability of Central Bank's interest rate changes

Recently, I came across this article, which offers a simple model for estimating the probabilities of interest rate cut/hike from a central bank. This is done by using market data, especially normal ...
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### Mean Field/Differential Game and Measurability

Consider the following scenario. There is a continuum of players in a population, with population measure normalized to $1$. Each player has a type $\theta \in [0,1]$ and we suppose that $\theta$ is ...
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### Job-finding rate in an urn-ball model with types

Setup Say you have two types of workers, high and low. The share of low-types among the unemployed population is $P$. I want to find the job-finding rate for these types. Matching Matching is ...
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### Applying the Martingale central limit theorem to the score process of an autoregressive model

This question is a natural continuation of the following question: How do I construct the score process of a Markov model and verify that it is a Martingale? In this problem, we set up as follows: ...
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### In economics, what variables do we usually assume to follow an exponential distribution?

In economics, what variables do we usually assume to follow an exponential distribution? I would like as many examples as possible, and it would be great if you have a rationale(economic reason or ...
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### Best-responding to a stochastically higher distribution of bids

In Auction Theory, Krishna writes that: a bidder who faces a stochastically higher distribution of bids–in the sense of reverse hazard rate dominance–will bid higher (This follows the proof of ...
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### How to determine the default probability of a county in a bond that is not in its native currency?

Consider the following case: Country P uses the currency Euro and gives p percent interest on a one year bond issued in Euro. Country Q uses the currency TL and gives q percent interest on a one ...
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### Marital status determinants

I am looking for the researches that have studied factors influencing marital status probability. I need them for citation purposes. After looking for a long time I have not found anything. So I need ...
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### Can't solve this matrix for Nash Equilibrium?

So, I have the following 9 by 9 probability matrix. I want to solve it for a nash equilibrium. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Y1FqxRIAHsHpgEz1ckxDt2sEOInOG3zz_wU8kBHvB4/edit?usp=sharing For ...
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Suppose the government wants to determine the efficient price of a certain commodity for which there is no competitive market. One way to do this is to take a sample of the potential buyers and ask ...
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### Lack of historical data for calibration of probability of default

It is a known fact that default rates seem to exhibit cyclic behavior. Most probability of default models use one-year averages of default rates to calibrate the models. The one-year averages should ...
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### Example of the change of measure proposed in Hansen (2012)

In this question, I'm continuing to explore the tools used/presented in Lars Hansen's Econometrica paper "Dynamic Valuation Decomposition within Stochastic Economies" (2012). I'm trying to compute an ...
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### Multinominal logit regressions - marginal effects

I am running a multinominal logit regression with five dependent variable categories: "I disagree fully", "I disagree", "Neutral", "I agree" and "I agree ...
### Rate of convergence and asymptotic dominance in $\Vert x \Vert \gg \Vert(\hat\beta-\beta)\cdot u\Vert$
Let $\Vert A \Vert$ denote the spectral norm of a random matrix. Let $x$ and $u_k$ be N$\times$T matrices. Denote $\beta \cdot u = \sum_{k=1}^K\beta_ku_k$, where $\beta$ is a K-vector and $\beta_k$ a ...