# Questions tagged [probability]

A branch of statistics that studies the likelihood of uncertain events occurring.

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### Type - I Error & Type - II Error: Pregnancy test analogy - is it legit?

I found this picture in my stats book but I'm now confused to what 'positive' and 'negative' is referring to. As seen in the table below, Type 1 error is the error that its H0 is actually true but ...
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### Is First Order Stochastic Dominance (FOSD) relation convex?

A convex relation is that $x\succeq y$ implies $\alpha x+(1-\alpha)y\succeq y$. Let $>_{FOSD}$ be $\succ$, is the FOSD convex? Intuitively it seems convex.
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### How to interpret the proof that information cascades will form?

I am reading the 1992 paper of Bikchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch on information cascades. They claim and prove that, given an environment of sequential decision making, an information cascade will ...
1 vote
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### Global games: How to derive posterior with uniform prior and signal

I have access to some lecture notes on Global games (following the model of Carlsson and van Damme (1993)) showing how to derive the players posterior beliefs. But I don't really grasp how players ...
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### Best-responding to a stochastically higher distribution of bids

In Auction Theory, Krishna writes that: a bidder who faces a stochastically higher distribution of bids–in the sense of reverse hazard rate dominance–will bid higher (This follows the proof of ...
1 vote
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### Dimensional analysis for the qdf/quantile function corresponding to the pdf/CDF for the size distribution of income

I have previously posted a very similar question on Stackoverflow, but based on responses there I have decided that the real nub of my question is economic. I will give a longish introduction, mainly ...
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### What exactly is/How exactly do we interpret the binomial model's Radon-Nikodym derivative?

Related: Lewis' triviality result? As I recall the one-step binomial model goes like this: The time periods are now $t=0$ and later $t=1$. We have 2.1. a stock that pays off $u$ for going up or $d$...
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1 vote
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### Marital status determinants

I am looking for the researches that have studied factors influencing marital status probability. I need them for citation purposes. After looking for a long time I have not found anything. So I need ...
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### Higher order beliefs and coherency in game theory

I am reading about the higher order beliefs. Before getting into the formal definitions, I will define some common terminology which I will need for the formal definitions. If $X$ and $Y$ are two ...
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### Is lowered probability of spending equals savings? [closed]

This a really basic one and logic says: Yes given enough iterations. But I am looking for validation Situation: There is a 7% probability of expenses of 1000 occurring. I have a tool that then ...
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### Why is it possible to calibrate your subjective probabilities?

Humans tend to be overconfident in their predictions; when most people say that there's a 95% chance that something will happen, they're usually wrong far more than 5% of the time. Whereas what ought ...
83 views

### Investment and probability

Being a mathematician, I am familiar with probability calculations, but I need to ask a question related to investments and probability, and how this is handled seen from an economics view. Given a ...
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1 vote
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### If an item is rarer than others, is it that much more valuable?

Say I am selling a pack of trading cards, and there are 5 cards inside. Four of these cards are basic cards, but the last card has a 1:10 chance of being a special insert card. Does the fact that the ...
284 views

### second order stochastic dominance without the same mean

Let $F$ and $G$ be two distributions with the same mean. $F$ is said to second order stochastically dominate (SOSD) $G$ if $$\int u(x)\mathrm dF(x)\ge \int u(x)\mathrm dG(x)\tag{1}$$ for all ...
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### Negative probabilities - Can we have negative payments in bonds?

In Half of a Coin: Negative Probabilities, the author mentions bond duration. Suppose we have payments at times $t = 1,2,...,n$ denoted respectively by $R_1, R_2, ..., R_n$ and the discount factor is ...
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### Applying the Martingale central limit theorem to the score process of an autoregressive model

This question is a natural continuation of the following question: How do I construct the score process of a Markov model and verify that it is a Martingale? In this problem, we set up as follows: ...
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### Showing that a transformation is measure preserving

Note: This question is related to this question about the construction of stochastic processes. Specifically, it relates to the transformation $\mathbb S: \Omega \rightarrow \Omega$ that is mentioned. ...
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### Understanding the construction of stochastic processes

I've seen stochastic processes modeled/constructed in the following way. Consider the probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal F, Pr)$ and let $\mathbb S$ be the (measurable) transformation \$\...
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