# Questions tagged [uncertainty]

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### First order condition of the sequence problem

Consider the standard permanent income model: $$\max_{\{c_t\}_{t=0}^\infty, \{b_{t+1}\}_{t=0}^\infty} \mathbb{E}_0 \left\{ \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u(c_t)\right\}$$ s.t. c_t + b_t = R^{-1} b_{t+1} +...
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### Kreps Porteus Certainty Equivalent Intuition

In Epstein-Zin recursive preferences, the Kreps-Porteus certainty equivalent is defined by \mathcal{R}_t(V_{t+1}) = (\mathbb{E}_t V_{t+1}^{1 - \gamma})^{1 /(1 - \gamma)}. \end{...
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### Existence of 'best' and 'worst' lottery

How can 'the best and worst lotteries exist when the set of outcome is finite and the rational preference relation satisfies independence axiom' be proven?
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### Existence of optimal strategy in a choice problem with uncertainty and information structure

Consider a decision maker choosing an action, $y$, from the finiteset $\mathcal{Y}$, possibly without having complete information about the state of the world. More precisely, let $V$ be a ...
43 views

### Robust predictions in single-agent decision problem with uncertainty

I would like your help to better understand the possibility of using the notion of Bayes Correlated Equilibrium (BCE) in a single-agent decision problem with uncertainty to make predictions on optimal ...
42 views

### Optimal strategy in a single-agent choice problem under uncertainty

Consider the following single-agent choice problem under uncertainty. Let $V$ be the state of the world with support $\mathcal{V}$ and probability distribution $P_V\in \Delta(\mathcal{v})$. First, ...
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### Brownian motion - expected value

Could somebody explain why the expected value of Brownian motion is zero? Why is it important in economics? Thanks!
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### Dominated lotteries in CPE

I have been looking into expectation-based loss aversion following Kőszegi-Rabin (2005, 2007). In particular, I find their choice-acclimating personal equilibrium (CPE) interesting, but it has a ...
58 views

### Archimedean but not mixture continuous

In the context of preferences on a set of lotteries on a finite set $X$, what is an example of a preference that is independent, Archimedean but not mixture continuous? I know the mixture continuous ...
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### Why Certainity Eqivalence in PIH only holds for quadratic utilities

In my current macro economics course, it has been stated that there is certainty equivalence in the random walk permanent income hypothesis ("which implies individuals act as if future consumption was ...
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### References for particular definitions of risk and uncertainty

I have some doubts about risk vs. uncertainty. I have read the thread "What is the difference between risk, uncertainty and ambiguity" and have skimmed through Knight's "Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit" ...
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### Question on uncertainity

Please imagine that Nicole is uncertain of her future wealth. Her wealth in the bad state of the world is zero. Her wealth in the good state is $w>0$. Each state is initially equally likely. ...
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### Indiference between two lotteries

Suppose that a binary relation satisfies only: Independence axiom: $L≿L′⟺α\circ L+(1−α)\circ L′′≿α\circ L′+(1−α) \circ L′′$ Reduction to simple lotteries: For all $g$, $g~g'$, $g'$ is the simple ...
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### Uncertainty in an unfair gamble

If a risk averse person is given the option of a certain amount of 2000 or playing a lottery game giving him 10000 with 25% probability, and 500 with 75%, then what would he do ?. The bet here is not ...
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### Profit maximization under uncertainity

I have a seller say S and I have a buyer say B. Buyer’s willing to pay is equal to x which is private information. But Seller believe that it falls in the range [0,x1]. Seller’s belief distribution is ...
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### What exactly is certainty equivalence in the context of DSGE models?

I keep reading about certainty equivalence in the context of DSGE models. I understand that it has something to do with "Getting rid of the expectation operator", but I'm not entirely sure? What ...
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### Will high computing power substitute the certainty-equivalence assumption?

Bloom in a recent JEP paper considers that "the increase in computing power has made it possible to include uncertainty shocks directly in a wide range of models, allowing economists to abandon ...
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### A growth model with regime switch

I have a very general question. I am reading this paper : http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/eaere/2015/177/Discounting-HelsinkiBlind.pdf There is a catastrophic event probability and after the ...
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### Economics of forgetting

I'm interested to know economic justifications of forgetting in various fields. On example is Green and Porter(1984). To sustain a Cartel, Cartel members have incentive to forget deviations in a ...
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### How is momentum justified as a common risk factor?

Momentum as a common risk factor? This question is partly a follow-up to another question found here. In this other question it was noted in momentum is difficult to explain as a common risk factor ...
657 views

### What is the advantage and disadvantage of fiscal illusion policy in terms for the financial market?

What is the advantage and disadvantage of fiscal illusion policy for the financial market? Fiscal illusion suggests that when government revenues are not completely transparent or are not fully ...
344 views

### Probability of states of nature

I've been given the following question and would really appreciate any help on part a. I've looked over all of my resources for this course and we have always been given the probability of the ...
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### Can the Machina Paradox be solved by expanding the choice set?

In another question, the Machina paradox is mentioned as a possible counterexample to the expected utility model: Adding to the list of paradoxes, consider Machina's paradox. It is described in Mas-...
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### What's the status on uncertainty shocks?

Bloom (2009) analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks, and Bloom et al (2014) propose a business cycle model based on these shocks. It seems to be a young field, but is there any consensus on ...