Questions tagged [unemployment]

Unemployment is the condition of one who is capable of working, actively seeking work, but unable to find any work.

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What are the most plausible scenarios for Eurozone economics without Nord Stream 1 gas?

As you may have heard, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines are no longer available. It is possible to foresee the most probable economic outcomes of that events to the Eurozone area? My main focus ...
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Data to compute the interval of unemployment rate estimate

I have recently read a paper by Charles F. Manski called "Credible Interval Estimates for Official Statistics with Survey Nonresponse". In it he provides a table of manually computed ranges, ...
2 votes
1 answer
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Unemployment only differs from its natural rate if expected inflation is different from actual inflation - why?

This is a quote from Mankiw. No further explaination is given and I'm having trouble working through the logic behind this statement. Could someone explain the process behind this assertion?
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How can employment be up but production is down?

I don't really understand current macro economics. There is definite scarcity. Production of practically every major commodity and common durable goods is down. This is causing prices to increase, as ...
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Does raising rates lead to lower wages?

You sent https://www.cp24.com/news/bank-of-canada-raises-key-rate-half-a-point-to-1-and-warns-of-further-hikes-to-come-1.5859951 Since companies that make stuff rely mostly on credit to do that. Now ...
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In search of a proper explanation of classical concept of employment

We studied Microeconomics in our first year college classes, and now in second year we have Macroeconomics. We have in our syllabus Keynesian theory of employment, and the books issued by college ...
1 vote
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Measures on the composition of the unemployed by educational attainment in the US

I am trying to find statistics on the profile of unemployed individuals in the U.S. categorized by educational attainment. I have found statistics on the unemployment rate for each education group (e....
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Are citizens being leased by their state?

Employment seems like a lessor/lessee relationship to me. The lessor being the state and the lessee being a company. In exchange for the lease, the state receives taxes, the employee receives pay, the ...
2 votes
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Solution Check on Problem about expected inflation and Philips Curve relation (from Blanchard's Macroeconomics book)

Consider a country with two political parties, Democrats and Republicans. Democrats care more about unemployment than Republicans, and Republicans care more about inflation than Democrats. When ...
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How to create/replicate Diebold's Canadian Employment Index?

In his textbook "Elements of Forecasting", Francis Diebold presents on page 130 the following series describing it as the Canadian Employment Index, quarterly, seasonally adjusted. The data ...
1 vote
1 answer
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Unemployment data - registered unemployed > ILO defined unemplyment

I have noticed that in Poland the rate of registered unemployed is higher than the "unemployement" rate. Here are the stats from the Polish regime (by month): Source: https://stat.gov.pl/en/...
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Separation rate & job finding rate

On page 494, when discussing the natural rate of unemployment Mankiw states that the NRU is caculated by dividing job separation/job separation + job finding. See below: "The NRU can be viewed as ...
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Unemployment forecasting model specification

I am building a model to forecast unemployment using GDP, the CPI index and the industrial production index (INDPRO) as covariates. Since I am looking to use stationary time series, I gathered the ...
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What is the author trying to imply in this sentence? what is employment per unit of capital?

"The usage of extra machinery does not cause unemployment since, employment per unit of capital is large in labor-intensive products that the country exports and the vast world market allows ...
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1 answer
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Can anyone please interpret this sentence on employment?

If the increase in labour force has been higher than the rate of population growth, it means that the population is becoming younger requiring the creation of new job opportunities at an increasing ...
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1 answer
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If companies could reduce prices to bring up demand during a recession, then why there is less production/output and more unemployment

When consumer demand reduces, and if companies could reduce prices to bring up demand during a recession, then why there is less production/output and more unemployment during a recession?
2 votes
1 answer
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Why high levels of inflation doesn't leads to high levels of employment?

According to the original Phillips curve $\pi=(\mu+z)-u$ there's a negative relation between inflation and unemployment. That being said, if there were a really high level of inflation, then there ...
1 vote
1 answer
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Search and Matching model with 2 agents?

I would like to know if you know any model with Search and matching framework (Mortenses-Pisarides style) with 2 types of workers (like Ricardian and rule of thumb consumers for exemple) ? I would ...
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Imputing # of unemployed from Labor Force Survey

I am working on state-level data, where one state has recently stopped publishing the absolute figures for the number of the unemployed. Instead, it currently only releases U and LFP rates. ...
2 votes
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Unemployment with Insiders-Outsiders. What is a core employee?

In Dynamic Macroeconomics book, by Alogoskoufis, on chapter 17, he analyses a model of aggregate fluctuations that is based on periodic nominal wage contracts and can explain involuntary unemployment (...
1 vote
1 answer
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How does using HP filter allows us to estimate long-run values for variables such as output and unemployement?

I'm reading the paper "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?" written by Laurence Ball, Daniel Leigh and Prakash Loungani. In it, in order to estimate Okun's Law in its level form, they use the HP filter ...
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Inverting the production function - Okun's Law: Fit at 50? (BALL; LEIGH; LOUNGANI, 2012)

Consider the following equations: $$ \tag{1} E_t - E_t^* = \gamma \cdot (Y_t - Y_t^*) + \eta_t, \gamma > 0, $$ $$ \tag{2} U_t - U_t^* = \delta \cdot (E_t - E_t^*) + \mu_t, \delta < 0 $$ where $...
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Unemployment Claims vs Monthly Jobs Report

Lately weekly Unemployment claims have been around 700,000. So Monthly unemployment claims are about 4 x 700,000 or 2,800,000. YET Jobs Reports say: The U.S. economy gained 638,000 jobs in ...
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Are there any measures of U-6 Unemployment that take into account ageing out of the work force explicitly?

Labor Force Participation has been steadily decreasing over the last 20 years or so. The Fed says that this has been the case mostly due to the demographic shifts, and to an extent the data backs that ...
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1 answer
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Would a Federal Job Guarantee hurt the economy?

I've been reading about how a job creation program would disrupt the private sector. One of the main things I kept seeing was that the a FJG will result in the elimination of thousands of jobs. So, ...
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1 answer
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Unemployment rates in US during COVID-19

Does the COVID-19 pandemic affect the unemployment rate in US?
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In-ovo chick sexing vs. unemployment [closed]

As they report in Wikipedia, daily 7 million male chicks are killed for economic reasons. What I did not know is that obviously the actual separation, sexing is done manually? Instrument or machine ...
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Explaining negative "cyclic" unemployment with a production function

First of all, here is a related post. Unfortunately, it does not answer my question. I have heard that there is an understanding of negative unemployment in economic theory. Obviously, absolute ...
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What are the different use cases in economics for the different definitions of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

The BLS releases the unemployment rate in the United States once every month. This unemployment rate (officially U-3) is defined as the total unemployed as a percentage of the the total civilian work ...
2 votes
1 answer
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Can anyone help me understand the Motrtensen-Pissarides model?

I am seeking help with the Mortensen-Pissarides model in discrete time? Basically, I was given the following in class example (which we didn’t complete do to time constraints associated with the end ...
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What measure of unemployment is used by central banks to find out whether the rate of unemployment is below the natural rate of unemployment?

Having an unemployment rate below the natural rate of unemployment (NRU) leads to wage inflation and a reduction in productivity. Seeing the consequences of that, and knowing that one of the roles of ...
0 votes
1 answer
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What is the probability of an unemployed worker receiving no job offer during a time period?

we are currently covering one sided search models and I had a question for you all. I kind of understand the raw calculus behind finding the probability of a job offer over a time interval h, but what ...
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Modelling the effect of crisis on unemployment

We want to estimate the effect of crises on a country's unemployment rate and distinguish the strength of this effect according to the debt level in a country (i.e. via the interaction effect crisis x ...
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How can I obtain monthly unemployment by ethnicity by state for the US?

Grateful for any help, thoughts and direction.
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What's holding the U.S. from decreasing unemployment by cutting H1B limits?

I don't understand why doesn't the U.S. decrease the number of H1B visa holders (foreign workers) during the current economic crisis? The unemployment is skyrocketing, wouldn't this measure decrease ...
2 votes
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Are there any estimates for what percentage of the jobs lost this spring are "permanent" at least for the rest of the year?

In a "view from the helicopter" video by The Economist on the aftereffects of Covid-19, one of the editors says that it's very unlikely we'll see a return to normal this year e.g. in the restaurant ...
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1 answer
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Choice of measure for unemployment

There are six types of unemployment rates in the US (U1-U6). U6 provides the broadest measure of unemployment, taking into account not only the unemployed labour market participants who are actively ...
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What does the seasonal adjustment curve for major macroeconomic metrics look like?

All the explanations of seasonal adjustment that I found from a quick search either don't give any quantitative examples, or give an example with a time series that is either made up or represents an ...
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1 answer
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Under what BLS line do "people who want a job but haven’t searched in the last 12 months" show up?

I'm trying to understand how this CNN math was derived: This category — jobless people who “want a job now” but “did not search for work in the previous year” — has hovered around 3 million workers ...
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1 vote
2 answers
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Should unemployment caused by the government closing non-essential businesses during quarantine be counted as structrural unemployment?

I have following definition of structural unemployment (taken from "Modern principles of economics" by Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok): Long-term unemployment caused by shocks or permanent features ...
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Does the sudden spike in the US jobless claim pose systemic risk to the US unemployment insurance system?

There has been an unprecedented short-term increase in US unemployment owing to the Covid-19 crisis. Initial jobless claims soared to a seasonally adjusted 3.28 million in the week ended March 21, ...
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1 answer
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Who is working right now? (coronoavirus)

Is there any research, graphs, or any formal (non-opinion) information on where I can get information on what people are working right now? I want to know, who is still collecting a paycheck. I am a ...
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Am I correct that cyclical unemployment can be negative?

Let's start with stating and emphasizing some truths that we will need later. Overall unemployment rate=Frictional unemployment + Structural unemployment + Cyclical unemployment. Also, Natural rate of ...
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Can structural unemployment be caused by regulations/laws of the government?

I think yes. Is my reasoning correct? The reasoning: Suppose, for an example, that prostitution was legal, but then the State changed its laws and criminalized prostitution. Has the State created ...
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Areas of Europe with more women than men have higher GDP and lower unemployment. Why might this be? [closed]

Using Eurostat data I've found that regions of Europe with more women than men (i.e. female biased sex ratio) have higher GDP and lower unemployment than areas with male biased sex ratios. any idea ...
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Why would overemployment mean that labor is used inefficiently?

If labor is being used efficiently, there is no excess unemployment or over employment. This phrase from Khan Academy struck me as quite strange. Why on Earth would over employment mean that labor ...
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1 answer
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Can you recursively forecast one variable using two variables?

My question is probably very elementary but I haven't been able to find an explanation of recursive forecasting that I fully understand. I've read a journal article that seemed to recursively ...
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1 answer
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Difference between unemployment rate between ILO and bureau of labor statistics

Why there are differences between the unemployment rate of the US between the data of the bureau of labor statistics and the ILO (international labor organization). Have they different definitions of ...
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Are there any net benefits in reducing/increasing tourist-oriented retail business?

Hong Kong is currently experiencing a slump in foreign tourist-oriented retail sales. Shops selling jewellery, watches, infant formula or Chinese medicine experienced a 25-35% decline YoY in August. ...
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Economic Achilles' heels of global financial economy

The latest attacks on oil production in Saudi-Arabia highlights the need for risk managers to follow up on possible terrorist targets that can have a global impact on the global financial economy, ...