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Inherently discrete variables (like "count data") have special properties, and it matters when it comes to econometric estimation. The usual criterion to treat a variable as continuous or discrete, is I believe not what we observe but what could be conceivably observable. Example: if one counts number of people, the variable is inherently discrete. In ...


4

Regarding Forecasts in General Economic forecasts as any forecasts can be sometimes wrong, however that does not mean they are always wrong and many times people just don’t really understand how to properly evaluate if forecast was wrong. For example if mean forecast of GDP growth is 4% but 95% confidence interval is 2%-6% you cannot say forecast is wrong ...


4

There are many different econometric methods used in macroeconometrics, but the basic ones are advanced versions of least squares methods and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Structural VARs, ARCH/GARCH models and several others are widely used as well. Since you're already familiar with econometric methods, you might try glancing through Fair's "...


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One answer is to try to find variation in the non-pecuniary price of the free good. Here is a famous example from estimating demand for public parks: In 1949, Harold Hotelling wrote a letter to the National Park Service, outlining a method where the park visitor’s round trip distance could be used to proxy the recreation trip price, so that consumer’s ...


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The idea is that all else equal, areas with inelastic housing supply (e.g., areas that are surrounded by water, so you can't just build some more houses "over that way") will see greater house price growth, which increases household wealth, and that these differences in supply elasticity are exogenous and uncorrelated with other things that matter. In Saiz (...


3

I do not think that macroeconomic analysis would be 'less trust worthy'. In the same ways as you can solve the issue of omitted variables and reverse causality in microeconomics you can do it macroeconomics as well. Macroeconomics, is not just vector autoregressions (VAR - which by the way corrects for endogeneity). Simultaneous equation techniques, even ...


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Are you looking for general references on Diff-in-Diff (DiD) and Regression Discontinuity (RD)? If yes, a good starting reference at the undergraduate level is probably J. Angrist and J.S. Pischke, Mastering' Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect, Princeton University Press, 2014. Look at chapters 4 and 5 for RD and DiD. If who want to dig deeper: ...


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When estimating something like substitution, I once ran into an issue that though there were price fluctuations, they were very small, it was likely I would observe noise rather than actual substitution at this level. A colleague recommended looking for natural experiments. In our case this meant looking for instances when one of the suppliers closed for ...


1

You should include all controls in the second stage, even if they are not instruments. The entire effect of log(mortality) should be mediated through Exprop. This does not mean there cannot be other things causing GDP or Exprop, but log mortality cannot have a effect on GDP except through Exprop.


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I would recommend you read Kroencke (2017). That paper dismantles the problem in a lot of prior (flawed) consumption-based asset pricing research as well as explaining some findings for what were seemingly better proxies. It is a fantastic bit of work and likely not yet in some of the texts you might encounter.


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Depending on the context this is sometimes called Jackknife resampling In statistics, the jackknife is a resampling technique especially useful for variance and bias estimation. The jackknife pre-dates other common resampling methods such as the bootstrap. The jackknife estimator of a parameter is found by systematically leaving out each ...


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I've run RDDs on similar sample sizes and got the paper accepted at a respectable conference. It's important to run McCrary Density Tests on your sample to look for people using knowledge on the treatment assignment rule to manipulate results and - even more important - to have a clear identification strategy, a qualitative justification for what you're ...


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Assume there are two agents in an economy, $A$ and $B$, (and some costless transaction mechanism). Per time period, agent $A$ produces alone quantity of intermediate good $q_A$. Agent $B$, thorugh a company where it is shareholder, buys this quantity, the company inputs also some other intermediate good , say $q_B$, and the two together through a production ...


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I will note that I am outsider with an interest in macroeconomics, and so this attempt at an answer only applies to the situation in macroecomics as I see it. There are effectively three questions here. Was Roehner right (in 2002)? As I discuss below, this question is the most critical, but any answer is going to be controversial. Has the situation ...


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Was he right? No. Has the situation changed since 2002? Yes, there are lots more journals, and much higher diversity of publishing. Sadly, that also means there are also a lot more venues that publish at the bottom of the quality scale: one even shares a name with you. Are there decent economic journals which are keen to publish puzzling empirical ...


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Referring to USA, the place to go and learn a lot (if not everything) about the matter is The Bureau of Labor Staitstics Indicatively, for one of BLS's many outputs, they report that: Payroll survey — methods and measurement issues The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a ...


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