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One example is this UK Government analysis: "Britain’s economy would be tipped into a year-long recession, with at least 500,000 jobs lost and GDP around 3.6% lower, following a vote to leave the EU, new Treasury analysis launched today by the Prime Minister and Chancellor shows…Speaking at B&Q in Eastleigh, Hampshire, the Prime Minister and ...


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My understanding is that the standard advice is to randomly select a seed value, and then keep that seed for your entire analysis. This allows the same computer code to give identical results each time. See, for example, the Stata manual: Stata’s random-number generation functions, such as runiform() and rnormal(), do not really produce random ...


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Brexit economic forecasts usually assume that Brexit will happen and nothing more than Brexit. In other words forecasters will not assume other changes which may be pro-growth. For example they will not likely assume the "Singapore on the Thames" outcome because we do not know if it is politically feasible or realistic. All else equal, countries tend to ...


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Maybe someone can get into more details, but generally speaking The range of estimates is large, from a loss of GDP of nearly ten percentage points (in the least attractive trade and inward investment scenarios modelled by the Treasury, NIESR and the Centre for Economic Performance at LSE) 1 to a gain of four points (Minford, for Economists for ...


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In a question here someone provided us with another example. Some Moody analysts predicted in mid-2016 a Trump recession starting in 2018 of varying intensities depending on how much of Trump's policies got implemented: the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump’s economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated ...


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