20

The annual growth rate of the global population has been in decline since about 1967 (five decades ago). The absolute annual growth peaked in 1987 (three decades ago). Malthusians claim that: population growth is geometric or higher; and food production growth is arithmetic or lower. If either of those do not hold, then Malthusian theory does not hold. ...


8

As you write, fertility rate explains most of it, and immigration explains the rest. People tend to migrate to richer countries, and Portugal is below average EU income. (Portugal is an EU member. The EU has freedom of movement, the citizens of any member state can relocate to other member states and work there.) Real per capita GDP is 30% less than in its ...


7

The Malthusian crisis has two parts. The first is exponential population growth. As others have noted, there is a trend for declining fertility once countries achieve an advanced state of development. Here's another figure showing this fact: Note that fertility (number of children per adult female) is decreasing essentially everywhere, and is forecast to be ...


6

Yes, there can be economic growth without population growth. As a reminder: gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all of the goods and services produced within an economy over a period of time (usually a year). GDP growth is simply the tendency for the GDP to increase over time. Roughly speaking, there are two ways for GDP to increase. The ...


5

I didn't see the evidences on the recent European immigration, but the event is similar to the Mariel Boatlift story in Card (1990): The Mariel immigrants increased the population and labor force of the Miami metropolitan area by 7 percent. Most of the immigrants were relatively unskilled: as a result, the proportional increase in labor supply to less-...


5

As mentioned in the question the exponential population growth was argued to exist because it is based on the 'natural growth' that can be empirically observed anywhere in nature where the resources are abundant. So you already answered that part pretty much yourself. When it comes to the arithmetic growth of resources, the word resource is actually not ...


4

No, an animal population that subsist solely by consuming its own members is not sustainable. This is easy to see because there's no external energy input into the population (all energy comes from other members of the same population), yet the individuals will necessarily expend some energy in their metabolism (turning it into heat). Eventually, if the ...


4

For example, "Assessing the Impact of the Maternity Capital Policy in Russia" (2014): Starting in 2007, the federal government has pursued an ambitious pro-natalist policy. Women who give birth to at least two children are entitled to "maternity capital" assistance ($11,000). In this paper we estimate a structural dynamic programming model of fertility ...


4

I think the answer of @EnergyNumbers covers most of the important points but I would like to emphasize something else. When setting up a model you should not give the same weights to data from 500 years ago as you give to the data of last year. Since circumstances can change a lot in that time the trends may change as well. For example world population was ...


4

I guess there might be some purpose to this but generally this is very different than $g-r$ and probably a bad idea. It isn't the same people growing the population and growing GDP. $\Delta GDP$ is the $\Delta$ (output of the existing population) + $\Delta$ (output of the new population). When you normalize by new population, you get $\Delta$ (output ...


4

The other excellent answers provided data - mine will provide a simple look into at what stage we are, if Malthusian Theory holds. I replicate here the first graph of the OP: For the graph to be meaningful, "resources" in it must be measured in "number of people that can be sustained by existing resources". To the degree that the amount of resources ...


3

It is possible for a country to have economic growth without population growth. Three sources of economic growth are: Accumulation of productive capital, enabling a labour force of the same size and the same average skill level, using the same technology, to produce more output; Improved education to raise the average skill level of labour; Improved ...


3

In short, the answer is yes. I gave an answer to this question that should explain the intuition behind such an answer. It primarily comes from understanding what the GDP equation is. In economics, we commonly use the formula for GDP as a Indicator of "economic growth" The GDP formula is: GDP=C+G+I+NX Where C is equal to all private consumption, ...


3

Birth rate affects not only total population but also the age structure of the population. If the birth rate over many years is below the level at which the population replaces itself, the result will be a falling population with an increasing proportion of elderly and often economically inactive people. With a falling proportion of economically active ...


3

The Cuban system is widely criticized. Particularly by people who experienced it. (Aside: In fact, this is consistent with the general trend that people who have actually lived under Communist, Socialist and Marxist systems tend to condemn those systems. And the only people who tend to praise such systems are people who never lived under those systems yet ...


3

This is actually quite complex issue. Taken narrowly answer to your question: what is the relationship between population growth and economic growth Is that simply the relationship is positive. This is because in the question you ask only about growth of GDP per se. Growth ultimately depends on growth of production and labor is an important input in the ...


3

tl;dr: No, repaying national debt does not assume population increase although depending on the parameters of economy population increase can sometimes help with repaying the debt and also help with reducing the ratio of debt to GDP, but it is neither required nor assumed. Moreover, depending on parameters population growth can even be a hindrance as well. ...


3

Malthus says he thinks it grows arithmetically. One has to believe that Malthus knows what he thinks! The "seeds of the earth" quotation you cite here is not meant to talk about food (despite the use of the word seed). Rather, that quote is to talk about the rapid growth rate of living things more generally, of which humans are a part. The line ...


2

Population changes slowly over time but has large effects in the long-run. Here are some well-studied facts about fertility: Before the industrial revolution, the rich had more surviving children than the poor. The transition from stagnation to economic growth is accompanied by a demographic transition from high to low fertility. Today, both within and ...


2

I'm not really an expert on the subject, but for welfare reforms I've been suggested to read Grogger and Karoly: "Welfare Reform: Effects of a Decade of Change" (2009) in the past. I believe it tackles at least some of the subjects you're thinking about and might be a good place to start.


2

Census State to State Migration Flows are available from 2004 - 2016. Census's State Intercensal Tables: 2000-2010 has annual state population data over the 2000-2010 period. Combining this with Census's State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2017 gives population series for back to 2004.


2

The UN Population Division's median projection for India shows population growing until around 2060. Continuing growth despite replacement level fertility is a consequence of the age structure of the population which, following common practice, the UN represents by a population pyramid. At present, India's population in groups up to age 40 is larger than ...


2

Population size isn't just about birth rate. It's also about death rate and net migration. If the health of India's population continues to improve, then life expectancy will increase, and population size will continue to grow until life expectancy stops increasing, assuming zero net migration. Net inward migration would also increase the population size.


2

Here there is a very good summary of existing information. Key variables are daily intake of calories/proteins/fat per person (so it is not so much about tons of food but their nutrient content). An example: Notice that most of the data is taken from the FAO, which is available online here.


2

This is because most of these projections are based on extrapolation (in fact almost all forecasting is based on extrapolation) which is inherently extremely inaccurate. Consider this simple example: Let’s say that we know that person who gets breast feeding for 3 months will have height 150cm person with 4months 160cm and 5months 170cm. Now based on this ...


2

There are various ratios that can be calculated relating energy production to economic variables or population. Generally they are neither correct nor incorrect: what should be asked is whether they are meaningful or useful for a particular purpose. One commonly used ratio is energy intensity, the ratio of GDP to energy use. Broadly, a high ratio ...


2

I have no idea whether there are formal rules, but you can emulate physical scientists and look at the units. Dividing solar power by population is reasonable, as you get megawatts per capita. Those refer to real quantities. However, you are dividing by GDP (in a roundabout fashion). The units of GDP are (currency unit)/(year). Since megawatts are a real ...


2

Regardless of the population size, what matters in terms of income is real or nominal terms. The gdp per capita may rise despite a constant population for the economy. But is it real terms that’s what matters. In an environment where the inflation skyrockets, gdp per capita is misleading.


Only top voted, non community-wiki answers of a minimum length are eligible