My State government is considering a new regulatory policy at the moment. We need to put together an assessment of the (likely) economic impacts of the policy. How do we do that?
- I don't work for the state, I'm an outside volunteer.
- I don't have any specific economics education.
- I'm hoping to be able to put something meaningful together with just a couple of evenings of work.
- There are a few other people whom I'm hoping will help.
- At this point even knowing what to google could be a big step forward
The desired end result, I'm pretty sure, is a document saying "Given this trusted data, and these reasonable starting assumptions, and this comprehensible mathematical model, we expect to see about this many more or fewer jobs and about this much more or less business investment". Not knowing any standardized techniques, this feels like trying to forecast the effects of a river dam on next year's hurricanes.
There are a few components to the proposed rules, but they can be considered in isolation. The most important one would require (of large producers) a set rate of reduction of CO2 emissions, which currently have few if any regulations in our state. So, for example, opponents of the rules will want a forecast based on the assumption that activities which are currently emitting CO2 simply shut down instead of migrating to different technology; proponents will want a forecast based on the assumption that wind an solar installations ramp up perfectly.
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