14
$\begingroup$

In Barro (2009) Rare disasters, asset prices and welfare costs Barro develops a Lucas tree model with Epstein-Zin preferences.

My question concerns the paper's equation (10). In this equation Barro states that under the optimal solution utility $U_t$ is proportional to consumption $C_t$ rased to the power of $1-\gamma$, where $\gamma$ is the coefficient of relative risk aversion, i.e.

$U_t=\Phi C_t^{1-\gamma}$

While I understand the logic of this result, I do not understand how he derives the constant $\Phi$, which is shown in footnote 7 of the mentioned paper:

Alberto Giovannini and Philippe Weil (1989, appendix) show that, with the utility function in equation (9), attained utility, $U_t$ , is proportional to wealth raised to the power $1-\gamma$. The form in equation (10) follows because $C_t$ is optimally chosen as a constant ratio to wealth in the i.i.d. case. The formula for $\Phi$ is, if $\gamma \neq 1$ $\theta \neq 1$, $$\Phi = (\frac{1}{1-\gamma})\{\rho+(\theta-1)g^* - (1/2)\gamma(\theta -1)\sigma^2 - (\frac{\theta-1}{\gamma-1})p[E(1-b)^{1-\gamma} - 1 - (\gamma - 1)Eb] \}^{(\gamma-1)/(1-\theta)}$$

Barro quotes the 1989 NBER paper by Giovannini and Weil. In this paper I can derive the constant. However, it looks completely different than Barro's version, because I end up with an expression that includes $E[R_t^{1-\gamma}]$, where $R_t$ is the return on equity. I believe Barro has replaced $E[R_t^{1-\gamma}]$ with the equilibrium solution of $R_t$. However, his expression does not include any logs or exp expressions.

I would be grateful for a solution or any hints to the solution.

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ This looks great! Thanks for your effort. It will take me a couple of days to review part 2 and 3 of your answer, but it looks very intuitive. $\endgroup$
    – drcms02
    Commented Oct 24, 2017 at 22:03

1 Answer 1

4
$\begingroup$

I think Barro means in the footnote that Giovanni and Weil find the same equation, $U_t=\Phi C^{1-\gamma}$, but using the optimal path of $C_t$. In Barro's paper, the approach is different given that the dynamics of $C_t$ is exogenous: $C_t=Y_t$ by assumption.

Barro uses the limit case when the length of a period gets close to 0. Maybe what may bother the reader is that the model is defined as discrete.

Rewrite the model

First, we can rewrite the model with a length of period $\delta$ and then use $\delta\to 0$. The GDP dynamics write $$\log(Y_{t+\delta})=\log(Y_t)+g\delta+u_{t+\delta}+v_ {t+\delta}$$ with $u_{t+\delta}\sim \mathcal{N}(0,\delta\sigma^2)$, and $v_{t+\delta}=0$ with probability $1-p\delta$ and $\log(1-b)$ with probability $p\delta$. The utility satisfies $$ U_t=\frac{1}{1-\gamma}\left\lbrace C_t^{1-\theta}+\frac{1}{1+\rho\delta}\left[(1-\gamma)E_tU_{t+\delta}\right]^\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}\right\rbrace^\frac{1-\gamma}{1-\theta}. $$

1) Find $\Phi$ as a function of $E_t\left[\left(\frac{C_{t+\delta}}{C_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}\right]$

From now suppose there is a $\Phi$ such that $U_t=\Phi C^{1-\gamma}$ (note that $\Phi$ depends on $\delta$ a priori). Define $H(U)=[(1-\gamma)U]^\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}$, the utility satisfies \begin{align} H(U_t)= C_t^{1-\theta}+\frac{1}{1+\rho\delta}H(E_tU_{t+\delta}). \end{align} We substitute $U_t$: \begin{align} H(\Phi)C_t^{1-\theta}= C_t^{1-\theta}+\frac{1}{1+\rho\delta}H(\Phi)\left(E_t\left[C_{t+\delta}^{1-\gamma}\right]\right)^\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}. \end{align} Hence, we obtain for $C_t\neq 0$, \begin{align} \frac{1}{H(\Phi)}= 1-\frac{1}{1+\rho\delta}\left(E_t\left[\left(\frac{C_{t+\delta}}{C_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}\right]\right)^\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}. \end{align}

2) Find $E_t\left[\left(\frac{C_{t+\delta}}{C_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}\right]$ fromp the GDP dynamics

The trick is to find the expectation in the right-hand side from the GDP dynamics. \begin{align} \left(\frac{Y_{t+\delta}}{Y_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}= \exp\left((1-\gamma)g\delta\right).\exp\left((1-\gamma)u_{t+\delta}\right).\exp\left((1-\gamma)v_ {t+\delta}\right). \end{align} Taking the expectation and using the independence between $u_{t+1}$ and $v_{t+1}$, it follows \begin{align} E_t\left(\frac{Y_{t+\delta}}{Y_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}= \exp\left((1-\gamma)g\delta\right).E_t\exp\left((1-\gamma)u_{t+\delta}\right).E_t\exp\left((1-\gamma)v_ {t+\delta}\right). \end{align} The expectation of $\exp(X)$ where $X$ follows $\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2)$ is $\exp(\sigma^2/2)$. $\exp\left((1-\gamma)v_ {t+\delta}\right)$ is a random variable equal to $1$ with probability $1-p\delta$ and $(1-b)^{1-\gamma}$ with probability $p\delta$. We substitute the expectation operator: \begin{align} E_t\left(\frac{Y_{t+\delta}}{Y_t}\right)^{1-\gamma}= \exp\left((1-\gamma)g\delta\right).\exp\left(\frac{(1-\gamma)^2\sigma^2\delta}{2}\right).\left(1-p\delta+pE[(1-b)^{1-\gamma}]\delta\right). \end{align} Finally, we use $C_t=Y_t$ to compute an equation for $\Phi$: \begin{align} \frac{1}{H(\Phi)}&= 1-\frac{1}{1+\rho\delta}\left\lbrace\exp\left((1-\theta)g\delta\right).\exp\left(\frac{(1-\gamma)(1-\theta)\sigma^2\delta}{2}\right)\right.\\ &\left. .\left(1-p\delta+pE[(1-b)^{1-\gamma}]\delta\right)^\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}\right\rbrace. \end{align}

3) Take the approximation $\delta\to 0$

The last step consists in taking a first-order approximation (I abusively keep the equal symbol): \begin{align} \frac{1}{H(\Phi)}&= 1-(1-\rho\delta). \left(1+(1-\theta)g\delta\right).\left(1+\frac{(1-\gamma)(1-\theta)\sigma^2\delta}{2}\right)\\ & .\left(1-\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}p\delta+\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}pE[(1-b)^{1-\gamma}]\delta\right). \end{align} Pursuing the first-order apprixmation (all the $\delta^i$ with $i>1$ can be neglected), we have \begin{align} \frac{1}{H(\Phi)}&= \rho\delta -(1-\theta)g\delta-\frac{(1-\gamma)(1-\theta)\sigma^2\delta}{2}\\ & +\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}p\delta-\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}pE[(1-b)^{1-\gamma}]\delta. \end{align} Substitute $g$ using $g^*=g+\frac{\sigma^2}{2}-pEb$, \begin{align} \frac{1}{H(\Phi)}&= \rho\delta -(1-\theta)g^*\delta+(1-\theta)\frac{\sigma^2}{2}\delta -(1-\theta)pEb\delta -\frac{(1-\gamma)(1-\theta)\sigma^2\delta}{2}\\ & +\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}p\delta-\frac{1-\theta}{1-\gamma}pE[(1-b)^{1-\gamma}]\delta. \end{align} We take $\delta=1$ and invert function $H$ to find the solution in the footnote 7 of the paper. The right-hand side of this equation "simplifies" to the within braces in the formula.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge you have read our privacy policy.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.